August 18, 2006 cease-fire day 5

August 18, 2006 Cease-fire Day 5

A report today by Ze’ev Shiff in Haaretz is worth reading. In it he underscores the fact that most of those injured and killed died at the hands of Hezbollah fighters armed with anti-tank weapons fired at tanks, and other armor. The much improved sagar missile, I don't recall if it's lazar or wire guided, was capable of penetrating the thick Merkava-4 tank's armor.

The missile reportedly has two parts, the first pierces the armor, the second goes in through the hole caused by the first, and explodes another warhead. Some military analysts have suggested the use of tanks was a mistake. Shiff recalls that during the Yom Kippur war Israel lost 150 tanks to anti-tank missiles. Israel has no defense against these missiles. If our offence is built on the use of tanks, which it is, and we have no way to defend them, then the strategy is flawed. One ex-general on a TV talk show suggested that tanks not be used, but other weapons that could have the same firepower, in conjunction with ground troops, and not be such an easy target.

Israel did learn some lessons during the war. Soldiers hiding out in captured apartments in Lebanon were also sitting ducks for these anti-tank rockets. Israel had adopted this policy in the various incursions into Gaza and the West Bank. After the first few days Israeli troops were given orders not to take shelter in apartments, but rather in open fields. This improvement saved lives.

Some are boisterous in their insistence that Israel should have launched a massive invasion at the very beginning of the conflict. Most analysts now say that Halutz sold a plan to Olmert that assured him of a successful air campaign that would end in a week. Halutz made a mistake. Olmert bought into it. Peretz went along. However, with a massive air campaign in progress, one doesn't put in ground troops who might be victims of friendly fire. Secondly, if I was Olmert and I could accomplish my goals without risking Israeli lives, I'd take the option, too. Thirdly, if Israel was ill-prepared to fight in Lebanon, since the reserves were out of shape, had poor weapons, and little supplies (there were many reports by soldiers to their families that they went into battle with a bar of halva since no food nor water was available) you can imagine what would have happened if 30,000 or 50,000 men had to face these hardships.

The troops went in, bravely, in spite of all of the 'fashlot' (foul-ups). They had high morale, they did their best. One commentator said that the government deserved the people behind it, but the people deserved a better government. However, given this lack of preparedness, poor strategy, and weapons unsuited for the battle, it was lucky for Israel that the massive invasion so many now think was the solution to the problem, didn't happen. More tanks and armored personnel carriers would have been lost, more men would have died, or been maimed, or injured. Until Israel can figure out what weapons are needed to win in Lebanon, the best plan is to say you won and go home. That's what they did.

Who is to blame for all this stuff? Ex-General Yosi Peled served as an on-air commentator during the war on a variety of TV stations. For a few years Peled was commander of the Northern Front during the previous war in Lebanon, while Israel occupied the 25-mile security belt there. After he retired in about 1997, he received a six page memo from someone outlining a scenario of Hezbollah missiles raining down on Israel. The scenario that came to life in 2006 was already predicted in detail in this memo. Peled said he forwarded the memo to then Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said he passed it on to the necessary people, including then Chief of Staff Yitzchak Mordecai. Nothing was ever done to implement any defenses against the Hezbollah attacks outlined in this report. Peled reiterated that the Hezbollah missile threat wasn't unknown, that the plan of Hezbollah to turn S. Lebanon into a mini-Iran was well known. What he didn't understand, he said, was why, with the military knowing all of this, nothing was ever done? Other critics have said the same things, and asked the same questions.

One radio talk-show host on yet another talk show, questioned yet another military analyst. "But you can't blame Olmert and Peretz," the talk-show host said. "They've only been in office 30-days."

"Ah," said the analyst, "but Olmert has been serving in Israeli governments for thirty-years. He was involved in many meetings. Many committees. He didn't come out of Georgia as a peanut farmer. This guy was an insider. He knew, or should have known, what Hezbollah was capable of."

These issues will all come out in a vaadat hakirah, a committee of inquiry, which will call witnesses, take testimony and draw conclusions on who did what, when and why.

An ex-Lt. Colonel, who dealt with the South Lebanese for years while Israel occupied that security belt, said he still had many contacts in South Lebanon. Most of the people were farmers, only interested in getting back to their crops, their grapes, their tobacco. The people he said he spoke with were aghast at Israel's military response in this war. Previously, Israel would send in troops, fight battles, seize territory, and usually withdraw. The farmers would leave their homes until the fighting died down, and then return to their lives. This time, the ex-Lt. Colonel said, they can't do that. Their homes are gone. Their lives are in disarray. They are frantic, and angry. He said that they are also angry at Nasrallah for their destroyed homes. The analyst said these people told him they didn't want to be pawns in a political campaign. They were not interested in Nasrallah dragging them into another conflict.

This was a positive development. It was, according to this ex-officer, an unexpected benefit from the failed air campaign. The destruction brought upon the Lebanese people seemed to have sobered them up, shaken them from their revelry that Nasrallah can bring back their Arab pride and honor. They were more interested in working their lands, and bringing in their crops than making Nasrallah king of the Arabs.

The US seemed to finally be getting smart, however. Most analysts on the Israeli TV talk shows thought that only a massive ground campaign could ultimately succeed against Hezbollah; or a clever propaganda campaign. Hezbollah was promising to rebuild Lebanon, albeit with Iranian money. The US woke up to the fact that America has as much money as the Iranians. Money buys friends. If the US started rebuilding homes in Lebanon, competing with Iran on the ground as a friend, not as a policeman, perhaps the public opinion could be swayed.

One analyst said that for years the Israelis ignored the Shiite population and cultivated ties with the Christians. Perhaps, they speculated, it's time to also start a fruitful dialogue with the Shiites, a dialogue that comes with financial benefits, a new or refurbished home, paved streets, medical clinics. If each bomb costs as much as five homes, maybe entire neighborhoods built with US aid would be better than that many bombs?

The UNIFIL force will be slow in coming, underpowered when they arrived, and unwilling, according to their own admission, to confront Hezbollah. That, as everyone knows, means that another conflict is on the horizon. Maybe more money, from the USA, the EU, money that is not controlled by Hezbollah, but is in competition with them, is the next battlefront with Hezbollah and their sponsor Iran.

My closing comment is that my son serves in a tank unit. I hope the army draws the proper conclusions and figures out a way to protect him as best they can. And soon.

August 17, 2006 Cease-fire Day 4

August 17, 2006 Cease-fire Day 4

The generals are battling it out in the press. The politicians taking potshots at whoever is in their line of fire. The public is relieved and confused. One year, perhaps, the true story of this war will be told. How it really started, who was behind it, what were the reasons? Was it simply the new Prime Minister Ehud Olmert showing the world that he wasn’t going to let anyone push Israel around while he was in charge? Was it a strategy of start a little fight in hopes someone would break it up? Was it the Chief of Staff restraining the neophyte Prime Minister and Defense Minister knowing that the Israeli Army was ill prepared for the war?

The mere fact that Defense Minister Amir Peretz admitted that no one had told him that the possibility of Hezbollah firing missiles on Israel was on the agenda only reinforces the idea that he was ill chosen for his job. Whoever advised him to admit this ignorance did him no favors. The Minister of Defense should know who Israel’s enemies are, and be prepared to defend the country against them. That’s what ‘defense’ means.

It will long be a mystery why Peretz was chosen for that task. He tried, but didn’t have the tools, like a six-year old lifting a 200-pound barbell. Did Olmert know how unprepared Peretz was for the job; or was he just as unprepared? Did Halutz know the air force couldn’t do the job; or was their military intelligence lacking in his decision-making process as well?

In some ways this may turn out to be like 9/11; lots of people in various agencies had the facts, but never shared them with anyone else. At least not with enough people to make an adequate judgment. Perhaps former PM Sharon knew the lack of Israel’s fighting prowess when he traded soldiers for Hezbollah fighters in Israeli jails rather than fighting again in Lebanon.

Ari Shavit, a leading Haaretz correspondent, extols the glories of the Israeli people for their stead-fastness, their strength, their courage under fire, both the civilians and the soldiers. The chorus singing the Israeli people’s praises was made up of everyone who could join the festival. Shavit then turned to the leaders of Israel and how they were lucky the country was made up of such strong people; people, he said, who deserved better leadership.

The Lebanese army is moving into the south. Five brigades, about 15,000 men. According to some sources 180 villages will be no entry zones for the Lebanese Army. There the Hezbollah will be free to keep their arms, and ammunition. Hezbollah will not be disarmed. This contravenes the UN mandate, but UNIFIL has said it has no intention of confronting Hezbollah. In any case, reports coming in attest to the fact that Hezbollah fighters simply fade into the crowd as the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL forces arrive in the villages. These forces allow more and more Israeli soldiers to leave Lebanon, yet again. Pundits agree that paramount is the speedy evacuation of Israeli soldiers so as not to leave targets for the Hezbollah to shoot at.

No one expects this cease-fire to last forever. Perhaps it will last long enough for Israel to get all the anti-missile systems they need in place. Perhaps Israel will build a bubble, a geodesic dome right out of Buckminster Fuller’s playbook that protects all of Israel that bounces missiles back where they came from. Wouldn’t that be nice?

August 16, 2006 Cease-fire day 3

August 16, 2006 Cease-fire Day 3

The Lebanese government has said it would send a force to Southern Lebanon. Two divisions are already in place, with three more to be sent South tomorrow. Hezbollah has agreed to allow the forces to deploy. Lebanese Prime Minister Siniora said tonight that his army would demolish any weapons it found. This conflicts with what Hezbollah spokesmen said, that Hezbollah to essentially remain intact, rebuild, and remain in power.

Israel’s spokesmen have said that allowing Hezbollah to keep its weapons and stay in South Lebanon is an invitation to another round of fighting, the only question is when. So far there are conflicting reports of when the promised international force is to take up positions in Southern Lebanon. Some reports have said the Germans and Italians won’t appear until Hezbollah is completely disarmed. A small force of French soldiers have arrived, but not the huge force expected. Rumour is that they will arrive within ten days. The Israeli army has said they’ll stay in place until the robust force arrives. Many analysts have said that by Israeli troops remaining in the area they become targets for Hezbollah fighters.

Israel Television’s Channel 2 military reporter Roni Daniel, an officer in the army reserves, viewed the Lebanese Army’s deployment of forces to South Lebanon as a victory for Israel. If, when the war started, Israel complained that it was Lebanon’s obligation to take over Southern Lebanon from Hezbollah, that’s precisely what is happening. He viewed the agreement by the Lebanese government to send troops a signal that Hezbollah was indeed going to be replaced. The news anchor called him an ‘optimist.’

Hezbollah has meanwhile promised each person who has lost a house $10,000 in rent for the next year, as well as free furniture and appliances. Hezbollah also runs a huge construction company and is stepping in to refurbish damaged homes, and rebuild destroyed homes. These are all functions that the Lebanese government should be fulfilling. The fact that Lebanon has not disarmed Hezbollah, nor provided social services to the population means that Hezbollah has so far staged a quiet coup.

Israel is looking at the situation with concern, but in the interim the cease-fire is holding. Israelis, who had evacuated their homes for bomb shelters or to safe harbor in the south of the country, are now returning in droves. The country is digging out of the mess left by the rockets, a mess both physical and psychological.

Too much attention is being put on the insignificant aspects of the war and those who handled it. The radio and press were filled with stories of Chief of Staff Dan Halutz’s sale of all his stocks three hours before the war broke out. An investigation has been launched into who leaked the information.

Given that Halutz is a veteran Israeli warrior, former head of the Israeli Air Force, and reportedly a genius it is unlikely that one phone call to his stockbroker would have taken his attention from the management of the war. He is supposed to be a man accustomed to multi-tasking. One phone call wouldn’t have thrown off his concentration. In any case he was a better pilot than an investor: following his sale his investments all increased in value as the Israeli stock market continued to rise during the war.

The long knives are out. Politicians as expected are staking out their territory in preparations for a move to topple the government and call new elections. Most veteran analysts think this at a time when they should better be focused on helping rebuild the shattered north, resettling those displaced persons, and prepare for the next round in the battles rather than fighting for some political advantage.

One of those mentioned as a new leader, emerging from retirement, is Ehud Barak, the former Prime Minister. Barak has been conspicuously absent all during the fighting, making only rare appearances on foreign TV stations. Many blame Barak for the current mess because of his hasty withdrawal from Lebanon in 2,000, allowing Hezbollah to fill in the vacuum left by the IDF. Others expect Barak to have ample evidence why he is now the best person to run the Labor Party and why he didn’t make any mistakes in 2,000.

Benjamin Netanyahu, who lost to Barak in the 1999 elections, also thinks his time has come, again. Netanyahu has made many appearances lately, in a statesman-like fashion, hinting that if he’d been in power these disastrous rocket attacks wouldn’t have happened.

However economist point out that the massive cuts in the military budget, sometimes to the extent of canceling training for reserve soldiers, canceling the upgrading of the Merkava tanks with anti-tank missile systems, and canceling the order of the vaunted Nautilus anti-Katyusha rocket system were more the cause for the current problems than Barak’s order for the IDF to withdraw from Lebanon.

It was Netanyahu, as Finance Minister under Ariel Sharon who was responsible for these budget cuts. He also brought in Stanley Fisher, the American businessman and economist, to run the Bank of Israel. Fisher and Netanyahu saw eye to eye on the budget cuts, and Fisher advised Netanyahu even before Fisher made Aliya, moved to Israel, and took over his position at the Bank.

Some pundits mused that Fisher may have been the architect of the successful economic policies that balances Israel’s budget and put Israel on firm economic footing, but at the cost of ignoring the existential threats to Israel from her sworn enemies.

These and other facts will all be brought out, battered like a rug beaten on a clothesline, until all the dirt is floating in the air.

Much criticism has also been leveled on the media for pouncing on every rocket that fell, every shell that was sent from Israel, ever tank that was hit, every soldier that was wounded. The new reality of live television, satellite telephones, endless talk shows, have reduced war to an on-going argument among people who were not directly involved in the fighting. Some think that this minute coverage of nearly every bullet fired will ultimately make war so odious that no one will want to indulge in it.

This close scrutiny is also market driven. TV stations need to sell advertising, get ratings, to justify the salaries of those working at the networks; newspapers have advertisers, and increasing competition, and need headlines, need issues to get the publics attention. What happened in World War II? Only a few broadcasts were made, few live, then on scratchy radio, and then limited to the war effort. One is hard put to imagine the famous journalist Edward R. Murrow, who broadcast nightly from London during the Blitz, critizing the Allies. Does honesty in reporting also mean searching for headlines where none really exist? Nightly broadcasts require footage, interviews, “news”. What would pass for news on a slow day wouldn’t make it onto the line-up during a real hot “news” day. How many careers and reputations have been ruined by a hasty rush to a headline? Reporters are also looking for a place in history, for a raise, for a promotion, for a Pulitzer. Sometimes the critics, analysts and reporters are too much like Burt Lancaster in Sweet Bird of Youth.

A panel of inquiry has been formed, ex-generals and others, to check the Army’s performance during the war. Some say this is pre-mature since Israel still has troops in Lebanon, others are looking for a change in administration. Much of this impatience comes from the MTVization of the world. Everything has to happen fast, now, today, only to be forgotten tomorrow.

A month from now, if the shooting stops in Lebanon, this war will be buried beneath the next crises. Those fascinated with the daily thumping of the two sides in this conflict will be focused on yet another crisis somewhere else in the world. Unless of course the next conflict is how to disarm Iran from it’s nuclear weapons. Then the blast from the bomb that lands from Iran will be the shot quite literally heard around the world.

In Gaza Hamas and the PA sat down to talk about a national unity government. So far no one has had any positive news on the kidnapping of the three soldiers that started the war.

August 15 War in Israel Day 2 cease-fire

August 15, 2006 Cease-Fire Day 2

According to Israel Television’s Channel 1 diplomatic reporter the French statesman in charge of the UNIFIL force set to take up positions in South Lebanon said today that it would take about a year to prepare for the move. Meanwhile not one nation, according to the reporter, has agreed to commit even one soldier to the force. The UN said it would sit again in a couple of days to discuss how and when to deploy the force. From this report it seems that the promises of a force taking over from Israeli troops within ten-days is far from the reality on the ground. Some Israeli troops are withdrawing, but others will be stuck there for the foreseeable future.

Israel’s commander of the northern front Gen. Udi Adam has said that Israel should expect more violence from Hezbollah in Lebanon. It could be in a month. It could be in a year. Meanwhile the Iranians are celebrating, claiming that Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy, defeated Israel and thus the USA.

A few Hezbollah fighters were killed today in S. Lebanon, but that did not break the cease-fire Discussions rage on the radio and TV over the way Israel handled the war. Somehow the press got the information that Israel’s Chief of Staff Dan Halutz dumped his stock portfolio three hours before the war began. He is being criticized for having his priorities askew. Pundits say he should have been worrying about winning the war not trying to save money. But others asked who leaked this privileged information to the press, and why?

The “war of the Generals” isn’t limited to Israel. Recently in the USA a group of retired generals were extremely vocal in the way Sec of Defense Donald Rumsfeld ran the war in Iraq. It was said he relied too heavily on an air campaign, then sent in too few troops to do the job of winning the war. Israel has it’s own generals criticizing each other. The two groups sound alike, even though an ocean separates them.

Most say that PM Olmert was too late entering the war with significant troops. Others say that the point of the war was to confront Hezbollah before Iran reached their nuclear capability, defusing a possible conflict with Hezbollah that could result in Iran playing their nuclear card, and ultimately drawing the USA into the mix.

Others say that the reason Olmert was so late in sending in his troops was to save Israeli lives, and only show the power of Israel’s might at the end of the war as a reminder to Syria what could happen to them if they decide to enter into a conflict with Israel. Still others say that all of the above mentioned reasons are just smoke and mirrors to cover up for what some critics call an abysmal failure in managing the war. As always, it’s easier to criticize than to make those critical decisions.

Israel’s PM Olmert declared a victory. That can be taken with a grain of salt, although it is true that Hezbollah was hurt and hurt bad. It’s not clear exactly how many fighters were killed because Hezbollah keeps that secret, but the numbers run up to an estimated 800. Much of their infrastructure is in tatters. Once the Lebanese population gets the dust out of their clothes, they may well ask if having Hezbollah around is worth the destruction of their country. That is the result Israel is reportedly counting on. Mess with us, the military says, and we’ll destroy your country, even if we have to absorb missiles in the process. Could be just loudmouths talking.

In this battle both sides came out claiming victory. Perhaps that’s a good thing. No one won. It was a draw. Pundits believe even a draw emboldens the Arabs in the region to begin planning strikes on Israel who was considered invincible. But no war Israel has fought since the lightening fast ’67 Six-Day war ended in a conclusive victory. And that victory left Israel holding onto the West Bank and Gaza, controlling millions of Arabs, and falling deeper and deeper into an the pit.

Most agree that the home front was heroic in absorbing the nearly 4,000 rockets fired into Israel over a period of 32 days. The bomb shelters were ill prepared to house the residents of the north. The government’s plans to deal with civilians in this situation were sorely criticized. A committee will investigate this failure, come up with plans how to evacuate citizens to the south of the country if the rockets start again. Appoint block captains to check bomb shelters, report back to neighborhood commanders, who would report to the local city hall on the needs of the civilians in the shelters. The government discovered that a lack of basic necessities was available to these beleaguered people.

Also two Generals said that the reserve troops were out of shape, and under supplied. The generals blamed government budget cuts to the army over the last six years, during the halcyon days when Israel dreamed that all conflicts with her neighbors were over, except for the nuisance of the Palestinian problem. The generals also criticized the use of tanks since tens of tanks were hit by anti-tank rockets and dozens of soldiers were killed.

Moshe Shlonsky, an ex-TV reporter, former head of Army radio, criticized the reserve soldiers for not making certain their units were prepared for a war. Lots of guys found excuses why they didn't want to leave their high paying jobs in Tel Aviv to do their reserve duty. The whole country was lulled into a false sense of security

But anyone who works with big bureaucracies can understand what happens when the bureaucrats are responsible for life and death issues. Every army is like that. In Israel there was a considerable amount of slacking off in the army. Hordes of men bought into the hi-tech boom, ignored existential threats, thought the PA was the biggest enemy on the horizon. Some considered even fighting Hamas as dangerous. Compared to Hezbollah that was simple. Iran is a serious opponent.. Israel has to grow up, again. Face the fact that life isn't easy here. Irrational people hate Jews just because they're Jews. Hate Israelis just because they're on Holy Ground. This didn't go away. Former PM Sharon thought it did. Former PM Barak thought it did. Former Minister of Defense and Chief of Staff Mofaz thought it did. Former Finance Minister and Prime Minister Netanyahu says he didn't, but that's pre-election BS.

In any case, the reality has changed. Lebanon has changed. The Middle East may have changed. Certainly Israel is now on notice. Question is, who will run Israel now?

Will the inevitable committees find fault?

A few raised the issue of Seymour Hirsch’s article in the recent New Yorker Magazine, claiming that Israeli representatives flew into the USA to meet with White House and Defense Department officials who helped plan the war. Some of the Israeli analysts said that indeed the Israeli battle plan, of a strong fierce air attack, followed by a lithe but lethal ground attack, closely resembled the American plans for Afghanistan and Iraq. Israeli officials have denied any coordination claiming that on occasion Israel and the US might agree on plans but in general each did what was best for themselves.

But the Israeli pundits agreed that the present administration wasn’t entirely to blame for those problems. Olmert and his government have only been in power a few months. The real guilt falls on those who preceded them: former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, unconscious, on his death-bed, forgotten but not gone, was in charge of the government for years. Former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was Sharon’s Finance Minister and was harshly criticized for the across the board budget cuts he implemented in his attempts to balance Israel’s budget. Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak is criticized for pulling out of Lebanon, allowing Hezbollah to flow up to the border fence with Israel, taunting Israelis with insults, stones, and spit, waving the yellow Hezbollah flag whenever they could. But the real threat was the build-up of ammunition literally under the noses of the Israelis. A build up ignored by the last three governments.

What will be? Either Israel gets back in shape, or gets knocked again. Each time more bullies will show up, sensing how easy it is. Is Israel's defense capability like the Wizard of Oz: really is just a huckster hiding behind a curtain? If so Israel is in trouble. But one analyst likened it to the movie hero Shane, played by Alan Ladd. The old Western movie formula, the good guy hangs up his guns, hoping he can lead a peaceful life, only to find that the bad guys lead by Jack Palance came to town. Now the good guy has to strap on his gun and fight or watch his friends get killed.

Israel did what Israel did in this war. It won't be the last the last war. It never is. Many facts in this war are buried stuff, things the public doesn’t know, and probably doesn’t want to know. Fact is Hezbollah was hurt badly. What's certain is today we are living in a different Middle East than two days ago.

August 14, 2006, Day 34 War in Israel, Cease-Fire

August 14, 2006 Day 34 War in Israel – Cease fire

Israel breathed a sigh of relief this morning when the cease-fire went into effect at 8:00 PM Israel time. Up until then Israel was busy flying sorties into Lebanon, reportedly striking over 100 Hezbollah targets. Hezbollah also fired rockets this morning, and fought with Israeli forces. Two soldiers were killed in the early morning hours before the cease-fire went into effect. Israel shot down two unmanned drones heading to the Israeli coast. It was assumed they carried bombs.

Then, suddenly it all stopped. Some thought it eerie to suddenly not be glued to the radio or TV anticipating the next air-raid siren, next missile dropping, next round of Israel’s artillery rocking the ground as the shells went on their way into Lebanon.

Israelis emerged cautiously from the bomb shelters like; some wouldn’t leave, yet.

One elderly woman interviewed on Israel radio said, “Some announcements say come out. Others say ‘be careful.’ So I’ve decided to stay here until it’s safe.”

A few people nearly squinted, as if seeing daylight for the first time.

A reporter said he was still on edge, waiting for the siren to go off, anticipating a bomb to explode near him, the ground to shake.

But people did come out of the shelters. The radio announced communities that were safe to leave the bomb shelter and go home. Those taking shelter with families in the south started packing up, going back north. One recently widowed American immigrant left her son’s home in the Golan Heights, where sirens had also gone off, but few missiles fell, and returned to her apartment in Haifa.

Israel was returning to normal. This after 3,970 rockets fell, 901 of them in populated communities, killing over 40 people. The mourning was still going on. Over 100 Israeli soldiers were killed. Hundreds more wounded, some with injuries so serious they may succumb to their wounds; others who will never be the same again, missing limbs, organs, senses.

A few days ago three of Israel’s leading authors, Amos Oz, A.B. Yehoshua and David Grossman held a press conference calling for an immediate withdrawal of Israeli troops. In a tragic irony a few hours before the cease-fire went into effect, peace activist and author David Grossman’s son Uri, a 20-year old tank commander, was killed in Lebanon.

Unfortunately he was not alone. Five other soldiers died yesterday.

The tragic stories go on and on. Each death is a tragedy. Each injury unjustified. Why was this war necessary? Was it necessary? Will the cease-fire last? These are all the questions upper-most in the minds of Israelis today. Those and what happens next?

E-mails are flying around with messages announcing buses and convoys of volunteers taking goods and services up north. Tsfat, a poor town, is reportedly in deep need of nearly everything. Other people are gathering up whatever they can, clothing, food, games, DVDs, CDs, and bringing them up north.

The country has rarely been more united. This is evident by today’s Knesset session, addressed by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, and then leader of the opposition, Likud leader Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu. Perhaps it was expected, but Prime Minister Olmert sent a clear message. He was responsible for everything that happened. He also said that Israel had made significant achievements. In Olmert’s speech he said that this war had changed the complexion of the Middle East. “No longer would there be a state within a state in Lebanon,” he said. Olmert said the Hezbollah leadership had gone underground, but would be found, and dealt with in time. He also issued a stern warning to Iran, comparing the Iranian Prime Minister Monsour Achmadnijad to Hitler.

Analysts said that Olmert had made a very lawyer-like speech; one that would serve him if a committee was ever formed to investigate the war. Olmert said the war brought up some serious issues and problems in the workings of the government and the army and these issues would be dealt with. But he also put on a brave front. And gave a strong message: Israel wasn’t defeated. Israel would continue to fight as long as necessary, when necessary. “We’ve had experience with more serious threats. Terrorism wouldn’t defeat Israel.” Olmert even received a round of applause, rare for anyone in Israel’s Knesset.

When opposition leader Netanyahu spoke, he took kept his tone calm and measured. He didn’t attack Olmert of the military in their handling of the war. Rather he spoke of the national grief over those brave soldiers who fought for Israel’s freedom and died, or were injured in their efforts. He also attacked Iran. Netanyahu then warned that this conflict wasn’t over. He strongly hinted that he didn’t expect Hezbollah to honor the cease-fire for long.

When he as done analysts said he made a reasoned speech. He knew that soldiers were still in Lebanon, and the fighting might start at any moment. The pundits said that overall this was not a time to criticize Olmert. That could wait a few weeks, until the final resolution of the cease-fire was in hand. Now was a time for unity, and that was the message Netanyahu sent.

A message the media and Israel’s well-meaning critics could also heed.

Israel is recovering, battered, dazed, like coming out of a bad car accident.

Israel seems still to be like the elderly woman in the bomb shelter, gingerly stepping out into the daylight, ears twitching, waiting for the sirens to blare again.

August 13, 2006 Day 33 War in Israel

August 13, 2006 Day 33 War in Israel

Nothing goes easily in the Middle East, not even the end of a war. The cease-fire is scheduled to go into effect tomorrow morning. Today the Israeli army has nearly 30,000 soldiers in the field. This is the biggest force Israel has mounted in this war. What began as a surgical air strike success then a limited ground incursion and finally this medium sized invasion. The latter comes on the eve of the UN agreed ceasefire according to resolution 1701. Today Lebanese PM Siniora ran into a snag. A cabinet member told him that Hezbollah wouldn’t disarm, nor allow a peaceful transition from Israeli to International forces hands. A cabinet crises ensued with the possibility the cease-fire won’t go into effect.

At a wedding tonight of my son’s friend, we spoke to another friend who is a medic in the paratroopers. He is doing reserve duty in Lebanon, off just because of the wedding. He never received a call-up order, but ran into a physician he’d served with who did get called up, and asked the young medic to go with him to Lebanon. He did, received his weapon, and went in and out of Lebanon taking out the wounded.

“It’s horrible,” he said. “Not fun at all.” But he was going back in the morning, to do his duty. “I hope there’s a cease-fire. No fighting, no wounded. No wounded, no need for a medic.” Later we heard that another close friend of the groom’s, who was serving his reserve duty with the paratroopers in Lebanon, was on his way to the wedding. He’d explained to his platoon commander that his best friend was getting married, and he was released, at the last minute, to go to the wedding. He was happy. His wife had recently given birth to their first child.

Israel TV showed footage of a wounded Hezbollah soldier who was taken to a hospital in Nahariya with a broken shoulder blade. The soldier said that he wasn’t against the Israelis. He wanted peace. He also said none of his company had received any word of an impending cease-fire. Then the interview ended as the doctors took him off to have his shoulder repaired.

Other reports on Israel TV showed a Hezbollah firing position. Nothing fancy. A shallow trench in the ground, a five-foot high ten-foot long cement wall, and behind it a few missiles ready to be fired. Further down the road an empty house, with missiles stacked up to the ceiling in a neat pyramid. A few long-range missiles on a table. Very well organized.

Many questions remain to be answered about this resolution, and its implementation. The future of this move is yet to be fully explained. The Israeli government has agreed to the resolution, but most pundits have little faith that the resolution will last very long. The Israeli media has pointed out that both Syria and Iran will take the opportunity to rearm Hezbollah. Today over 200 rockets fell in Israel, one landed on the apartment building where a 83 year old man lived. He was killed in the blast. The Israel police announced that a few of the rockets were long-range rockets supplied by Iran and Syria.

Israeli cabinet minister Yizchak Herzog, a scion of the Herzog family, said that the cease-fire and promise of an international force were very positive developments in the Middle East. He said that 15,000 soldiers from an international force were to join the 15,000 soldiers of the Lebanese army. This is the line pushed by the Israeli government, by nearly every minister who is allowed near a microphone. Problem with the international force is that a number of countries, like Italy and Germany, have said they won’t send in any troops until the area is clear of Hezbollah. Bit of a conundrum that.

Some analysts expect the Israeli Army, which is now making major advances across Lebanon, not to stop the attack until the US demands Israel honor the UN imposed cease-fire. The IDF is hoping to make some major gains before the cease-fire. However ex-General, and commander of the northern front Knesset Member Mtan Vilnai (Labor party) thought little of import could be accomplished in the remaining hours of this war.

He was one of those who was critical of the handling of the war but stressed that while the fighting was still going on criticism of the goals, execution, and strategy of the war should be kept under wraps. He also was one of many who criticized the Israeli media for not showing restraint in their reporting and commentary of the war.

The closer that the cease-fire approaches, the more the politicians are beginning to stake out their positions for the next elections. Labor, Meretz, Kadima, Likud, all are making their pitch to the press how they would have run the war, how quickly a full investigation should be launched into the handling of the war, and even how fast new elections should be called..

This rather cynical manipulation of the public to obtain political gains is just one example of the jostling for position going on. The war of the Generals is also on going, each blaming the other for the lack of Israeli accomplishments in this war.

The generals are also lining up on the sides of the various parties, hoping perhaps for a place on the next ballot.

More neighbors’ children have been called up. A cease-fire may be in the offing, but meanwhile the fighting goes on. The rockets continue to fall. 29 Israeli soldiers died in the last 24 hours. Five more died today. The Israeli army says that between 300 and 800 Hezbollah fighters have been killed. Lately the body count on the radio reminds one of the old Viet Nam war days.

The Israeli home front command was on the radio a dozen times in a hour announcing impending rocket attacks on villages, towns and cities in the north. Hezbollah was letting loose their most vicious day yet. Over 250 rockets fell on the north. Haifa was hit a number of time.

The questions asked in the press, and of government officials in radio and TV interviews, is why launch a massive offensive now when the cease-fire was evident. Was it worth the cost of lives just to gain a few more meters of land in a tough battle?

The answers were varied. Most thought that the fighting was necessary to take important positions that Israel would hole, in order to protect her citizens, until the International force, took over. The impression given was that Israeli forces weren’t leaving Lebanon anytime soon.

The two Israeli soldiers kidnapped by Hezbollah were to be released according to the UN agreement, but no date was set. No mention was made of Gilad Shaliet, the soldier kidnapped from his army position near Gaza, at the beginning of the conflict. Hamas has continued firing rockets into Israel, but at a much slower pace. Many commentators think that Hamas is holding back until they can get adequate media coverage for their actions. Only eleven Kassam rockets were fired from Gaza into Israel last week, compared to over thirty the previous week.

Tom Segev, writing in Haaretz, said that the Hezbollah campaign was a sideshow. The real issue was and still is the Palestinian issue. He thought the time had come for Israel to withdraw from Palestinian territory, and get on with negotiating a two-state solution.

Prmie Minister Ehud Olmert had made mention of his ‘disengagement’ plan during the course of the war, and got stuck in a ditch because of it. The right-wing settler movement yelped that they were in the midst of fighting for Israel’s security; their sons were on the battlefield, how could he talk about kicking these same people out of their homes? Olmert back-tracked on his statement, called former General Effi Eitam, head of the National Religious Party, and apologized, saying he had no plans to go back to the disengagement plan.

The Palestinians are not unhappy about Israel’s embarrassing performance against Hezbollah. Posters of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah are on sale in many shops in Gaza and the West Bank, as are Hezbollah flags. Hamas is still the Palestinian party in power, even if Israel has been pounding Gaza relentlessly while the world’s attention was focused in Lebanon. Some analysts believe that Hamas is not going to be able to resume control of the Palestinian government after the war.

Many pundits espouse encouraging ‘moderate’ Arab leaders to get the “road map” and other peace plans back on track. The names mentioned are Siniora in Lebanon, and Abbas in Ramallah. However neither of these men have the power to accomplish any political moves without the approval of the troublemakers’ like Hamas and Hezbollah. The end result is that the Palestinians will continue their “struggle” and Hezbollah will wait until they have recovered sufficiently to mount their next attack.

Meanwhile, the cease-fire will be used for Israel to take stock, resupply, probably change leadership, but in the end the conflict will heat up, once again. It always does.

August 11 & 12 2006, Day 30 +31 War in Israel

August 11-12, 2006 Day 30 +31, War in Israel

Even though the UN voted for a cease-fire the skies above Jerusalem were still busy with Israeli jet fighters streaking to and from Lebanon. Our neighborhood was accommodating some families from the north. The local Or Torah girl’s religious school was used as a dormitory for about 20 families. The call went out to the local residents to help with food, or clothing. One e-mail asked for a child’s size three shoe.

An American-born rabbi with a modern orthodox community near Tel Aviv donated new boots to his future son-in-law’s paratroop unit. The mother of one of the paratroopers in the unit, who is a friend, requested that I mention that anyone who wants to donate things to the Army should do so. Of course it’s not that simple unless you send money. Mailing merchandise into Israel entails the payment of customs, purchase and sales taxes once the goods arrive in Israel. A $20 cable imported from Apple USA will cost $60 by the time it arrives at your home in Israel. Better off not sending stuff. But there are organizations like Friends of the IDF that will probably arrange to have any donations delivered to the proper address. Guess I have to mention that there are lots of rumors about lack of essential materials for the reserve and regular troops. About the looming scandals. But these are, so far, only rumors.

More people killed today. At least seven soldiers, so far. An anti-aircraft missile downed a helicopter. More Israeli forces landed beyond the Litani River, some in front of it. Israeli was apparently looking to secure advantageous positions prior to the cease-fire.

The fighting was fierce. Hezbollah doing it’s best. Israeli troops reported that they’d killed about 40 Hezbollah fighters. Many had the latest weapons reportedly shipped in from Iran. “It’s like fighting the Iranian Commando Units,” one soldier said.

We have too many friends and neighbors with sons in Lebanon. All are worried. Today I saw a chirpy little guy, usually full of wisecracks and funny jokes, dressed in an army uniform with officer’s bars on his shoulder. He was grim. No attempt at a wise crack got him to lighten up. Which unit was he in, he was asked. “You don’t want to know.” Later I discovered his job was to inform families of the loss of a loved one in battle.

My wife’s nephew, who was in an elite unit, has not yet been called up to reserve duty. But yesterday he too was in the hospital visiting a good friend who was wounded in the fighting. That’s what’s going on today in Israel. Fighting, wounded, dead. Not a time for relaxing around the pool, a quiet afternoon of golf, or a vacation hiking in the Galilee.

A report in the daily Haaretz newspaper with the ex-head of Military intelligence, Gen Kupwasser, was enlightening. He said that in fact Israel knew all about the missiles in Lebanon, and had known for years. He said Hezbollah didn’t in the least bit surprise Israel. The only thing that didn’t happen was that Israel didn’t deploy the Nautilus anti-Katyusha weapon, which the General had been advocating for years. He said Israel intelligence had known Hezbollah was out to kidnap soldiers, and had already been thwarted four times. In the past former PM Ariel Sharon would always negotiate a settlement, swap prisoners, and go about business. This time Hezbollah was taken by complete surprise at the ferocity of the attack. He thought that Nasrallah's misjudgements about Israel's retaliation would eventually be his undoing.

Hezbollah, he said, were an exemplification of the Arab mind. Like the Palestinians, the Hezbollah thought of themselves as victims, persecuted by the US and Israel. Each of Hezbollah’s leader Nasrallah’s moves was meant to replace Arab honor. According to this general Arab honor was the most important thing in the Arab world. This fact was frequently neglected. Nasrallah was seen as redeeming Arab honor, and thus was a hero. The General thought that Nasrallah had ambitions to take over as leader of the Arab world.

He was optimistic, however, that when the fighting was over Nasrallah would no longer be along Israel’s border. That the international forces that be would make certain that a healthy strip of land existed between Israel and Hezbollah, a buffer zone, with International troops keeping the sides apart. But in his opinion Israel would eventually beat Hezbollah. This was a good time for the war, he said, since Iran had yet to develop its nuclear weapons systems. Syria, he said, wasn’t interested in getting into the fight. They knew it would be a futile gesture. The young PM Bashir Assad had, according to the General, sent Hezbollah the latest Iranian weapons, transported in a sneaky way. Syria had sent relief supplies to Iran after the 2003 earthquake. When the trucks returned to Syria they were loaded with weapons, which the Syrians then sent to Hezbollah.

He said that Israel knew all about the bunkers, just not their exact location. And he was harshly critical of the press for daring to question Israeli leaders at this time. Criticism, and talk of investigating committees were things best reserved for when the war had ended. Any other talk just undermined the war effort, weakened the soldier’s resolve and sent the wrong message to the world.

A couple of friends came to Shabat dinner. They were very anxious about the war. The discussion turned to criticism of Israeli leadership, and questions of the running of the war. At one point one of the army-aged boys at the table lost his temper. He was possibly to go into battle and the talk of how stupid the war was being run riled him. He said the war wasn’t being run stupidly, but wisely. The soldiers were doing their best under difficult conditions. And of course he was right. Armchair generals, like Monday morning quarterbacks, always know exactly how to win a battle or a game.

So far this war has been geared to saving lives, fighting when necessary, killing when necessary. And protecting Israel’s troops if necessary. If Lebanon manages to get support from a well-armed and robust international force to accompany the Lebanese army into southern Lebanon, the cease-fire may have some meaning. Cabinet Minister Rafi Ayton, however, thinks that unless the international force is included, all that will happen is that Hezbollah will set up a fundamentalist Islamic State in southern Lebanon. Ayton, by the way, is the leader of the Pensioner’s party that won a surprising 8 seats in the last Knesset elections, mostly as a protest vote. Ayton himself is an old Mossad agent. He’s the guy who ran Jonathan Pollard, and refused to let him in the Israeli Embassy in Washington when Pollard was on the run from the FBI.

Israel was insisting that Hezbollah be disarmed, according to UN Resolution 1559. Lebanon is now espousing new demands; one is that Israel withdraws from the Shaba Farms area of the Golan. Israel views this as surrender to Hezbollah and demands that the item be excluded in any peace agreement. One assumes that these two issues will cancel each other out at this stage.

Then there is Al Queda, looking to get back in the headlines. They were defeated with the attempted bombing on the planes flying out of Britain, but they won’t quit. They’ll look for another way to wage their holy war. Meanwhile passengers will be delayed on their travels. The British are even warning people not to travel, because, one assumes, the authorities didn’t get all the gang. Will attacks like these topple the British government? Be the end of England? No, but they’re terrifying and disruptive.

In Israel the entire north is mostly unemployed. Stores closed. Streets empty. The cost in loss of income is enormous. The cost of the war is estimated at about $5 Billion, so far. Tourism is dead. The impact of the rockets is much greater than just the explosion from the warhead.

Israel may have twice the population as Lebanon, have a Gross National Product greater than nearly all of the surrounding countries together, have more hi-tech start-ups than anyone else in the world but the USA, but that doesn’t mean that the Hezbollah isn’t having a disproportionate impact on Israel. That really upsets Israelis. Here is this pudgy Moslem cleric with the power to make Israelis scurry for shelter, get them to worry about their mortgage payments, force them to limit their movements; and in retaliation Israel can’t even get a good shot at the guy. Like hunting mosquitoes in the dark.

Nasrallah’s smugness is irritating. That’s what burns up the Israelis. The injustice of it all. The fact that the world’s media sees Israel attacking the illusive Hezbollah from the air, with their tanks and cannons, and sympathizes with the Lebanese. As if Hezbollah doesn’t exist. As if they’re not out there killing Israelis.

Israel doesn’t have a lock on terrorist attacks. They happen all over the world these days. And most of the world isn’t any guiltier than Israel. Did the British deserve the subway bombing, the Americans the Twin Towers? But that doesn’t stop a lot of the media from going against the Israelis with biased one-sided reporting.

Kupwasser, the ex- Army Intelligence chief was asked, “Do you think this conflict could precipitate World War III?” He shot back, “World War III started five years ago. This is just another battle.” The war is between two cultures, radical Islam and the West. Iran and Al Queda, Shiite and Sunni, wishing to impose an Islamic rule on the world. That’s what’s happening, he said. But the world tries to forget when it can.

Aug 10, 2006 Day 30 War in Israel

Aug 10, 2006 Day 30 War in Israel

Since this is going to be published in the New York Times I have to be more circumspect about what I write. The standards will be much more severe. The New York Times is after all the premiere newspaper in the USA. When these writing appear in that august publication, much will change.

Perception for one. No longer a crank journal from a nonentity, suddenly the thoughts carry weight and dignity. Image and perception. Published on the web through personal e-mail, a blog, the thoughts were frivolous and insignificant. Suddenly they carry import and meaning.

That’s what the war in Israel has become. Image and perception. Has Israel lost? Has Israel won? Is Hezbollah a significant player in the Middle East, or a fleck of dust on the strands of time? If Hezbollah emerges intact from this war, Israel’s image drops. Imagine an old-fashioned grocery scale, put a weight on one side to balance the other. If Hezbollah has more weights, Israel gets lighter, less significant. The converse is also true.

What bothers me is that the war has become one of perception. Most analysts say winning wars are usually 80 percent psychology. I’d have thought it was 80 per cent ammunition. Now our soldiers fighting in Lebanon are pawns in a game of chess aimed not at winning but in getting the best position before the powers that be step in to stop the conflict.

How would you like to be fighting for your life knowing that all you’re doing is getting Israel a better position at the negotiating table? I’d feel cheated. I’d feel that if I wasn’t fighting to win, but only for some better diplomatic solution, I wouldn’t fight as well.

But lucky for all of us, I’m not fighting.

The kids that are on the battlefront show admirable spirit. Those in hospital say they can’t wait to get back to their friends, their comrades. To protect their homes. These kids are heroes. And those that died? Fifteen yesterday, forty injured. More died today. Israel TV interviewed soldiers waiting to go into Lebanon. Yesterday they were mounted up, in their vehicles, at the gate leading into Lebanon when the call came in to stand down. “We don’t know what’s going on,” said one soldier, laying on a blanket in the shade. “It’s like no one knows what’s going on. At least no one tells us.”

Avi Dichter, Israel’s Minister of Internal Security was interviewed on TV. He talked fast, droned on and on, dodging questions, giving pat political answers pulled out of some book they give politicians when they’re elected: “Sayings That Don’t Say Anything.” Dichter was once the head of the Shin Bet, Israel’s version of the FBI. His brief was to contain the Palestinian radicals in the West Bank and Gaza, and know what was going on in Lebanon.

Why didn’t the TV anchorman ask if he knew that Hezbollah had built well-concealed bunkers made of reinforced concrete, with ample storage areas for rockets and ammunition, with kitchens, toilets, bedrooms, meeting rooms, and air-conditioning? That they hid while the Israeli army came through then popped up, shot rockets, and went back in hiding. The anchorman asked something similiar. Dicther answered, that he knew of course what Hezbollah was up to but not all threats have to be dealt with at the time. Then he said that it’s possible Israel will withdraw now and go back into Lebanon in a few years if Hezbollah starts acting up again.

“Go back in?” the TV announcer asked. You haven’t accomplished anything. Yes we have, Dichter said. We’ve destroyed a significant amount of Hezbollah infrastructure. But the bottom line was clear from Dichter's statements: Israel’s getting ready to pull out. Israel’s PM Olmert seems to have decided that the means to win this battle are not within reach. Pundits think that he may be pulling back, to rearm, and go back into battle with a better plan, better weapons, and less loss to Israeli life.

In Israel the death of each soldier is like a death in the family. The TV announcers read out their names, show their pictures, have interviews with their families: crying mothers, dads holding back tears, friends embracing each other. It’s like one family, even if Israel now has over six million people. Everyone knows someone who knows someone who died. Yesterday the son of a friend went to two funerals of boys from his unit. Boys who were also his friends.

Israel’s army reportedly has at best only a few more days to reach their goals. Almost everyone now agrees that power and strength will not win this war. The experts say that if Israel doesn’t make significant gains in the battlefront, then Israel will be forced to accept a peace settlement that will cause more problems in the future. Israel will be forced to accept an international force not to its liking.

Much has been said about the over abundance of press coverage of every katyushas that falls, ever rocket that lands, every tank that rumbles by on a TV screen, puffs of black smoke, commentary to tell us what was happening. Prime Minster Olmert also watches TV. He is a media maven. Some analysts have said he’s covering himself in Teflon so that when the mud gets slung around after the war it doesn’t stick to him.

At the beginning of the war Israel’s Chief of Staff let it be known that Israel can strike anywhere, anytime. Is that the point, face time? Those minutes on TV, around the world? Image and perception. One pundit made the point that if you drive up to your local bank in a new Lincoln, and make sure the bank manager sees it, before asking for an extension on your loans, he’ll still first look at your balance sheet, at your income, before telling you that you’ve wasted money renting the Lincoln.

One Israeli analyst wondered that if Israel’s leadership had only gone to war to provide footage for TV then call a cease-fire, what was the logic of the conflict in the first place? Did Israel’s leaders lose sight of the major goals? Is their public image, their place in history, their chances for reelection or kudos for the number of bombs they’ve dropped justify what is going on? The analyst concluded that all along he thought Israel was supposed to somehow or another kill off Hezbollah so they wouldn’t be a threat. He guessed he’d made a mistake. What bothered him was that he suspected the conflict has ground down more to negotiations than battles. If that’s so, he asked, why not stop now: get the boys home before they get hurt? Olmert may have heard him.

For all the talk of a cease-fire and an international force, no one is seriously going to face Hezbollah but Israel. 165 rockets so far today. A 27-year old Israeli Arab mother and her five-year old son killed by a direct hit on their kitchen where they were having lunch. In the long run who else but Israel will put a stop to this?

The army says that Hezbollah’s strength has been eroded. But Hezbollah still has thousands of missiles. Thousands. State-Sponsored Terrorism, since Hezbollah sits in the Lebanese government, and gets support from Syria and Iran. And what’s being done about it? Israel is criticized for bombing Lebanon. CNN shows pictures of the before and after of Beirut, Tyre, Sidon, tsk tsking the air force’s bombing Hezbollah targets. Much more dramatic pictures than on the Israeli side. But they sort of skip over the fact that Israel is trying to stop the Hezbollah from showering Israel with missiles.

And it was a Syrian 122mm missile that killed the mother and son today. Yesterday more medium-range Syrian Katyushas hit Beit Shaan. That’s a long way from the Lebanese border. Many analysts are asking what a narrow shallow security zone is going to stop?

Former Sec. Of State Henry Kissenger said, ‘just because you’re paranoid, don’t mean they’re not out to get you.’ Given the approximately 3,500 Hezbollah rockets that have fallen on Israel so far, killing over 100 people, wounding nearly 1,000; given the fact that Hamas is still firing in the south, given that both Hamas and Hezbollah are still holding Israeli soldiers captive, and most of all, given the fact that the Iranian government calls Israel a cancer that has to be excised from the world, there is ample room for paranoia.

Arabs are famous for over-exaggerating their successes, the numbers of Israeli tanks destroyed, the number of soldiers killed, and the numbers of Lebanese massacred by Israel. The Arab side was always good at the image and perception thing. Israel was more interested in facts on the ground, proven and provable in a scientific method.

Today what the British called the prevention of a mass murder was prevented. Plans to blow up 9 airplanes in mid-air, simultaneously. The battle isn’t limited to Israel. Hezbollah and their partners are everywhere. George W. Bush, though, and Tony Blair, seems to get it. Like Churchill they see the big picture That’s why these guys care about Israel. It’s like watching the Spanish Civil War in 1936, with the Democrats against the Fascists. You don’t have to be a genius to see what follows the Hezbollah Israel struggle, especially if it appears Hezbollah won. And no, the NYTimes wasn’t approached to publish this piece. But that line did get your attention. Perception is everything. For a while you may have even thought this missive was important.

August 9, 2006, Day 29, War in Israel

August 9, 2006, Day 29, War in Israel

Fox News calls it “War in the Middle East.” The sub-headline says “Israeli Commander: The most important war Israel ever fought.” Were these statements bombastic, or accurate? Today Israel’s cabinet agreed to expand the ground war, send in the troops that had massed on the border waiting for the green light. The cabinet voted 9-0 with three cabinet ministers abstaining. Israeli analysts said the troops might take a month to reach their objectives. Others say that substantive results will be seen within seven days. By about 11:00 PM Israel time the tanks started moving across the border to their targets. The expanded invasion had begun. But a few hours later the UN asked Israel to put the push on hold. But by that time the army had started to move.

Some experts say that Israel needs a ratio of six to one to defeat Hezbollah. But the Israeli army isn’t going for ‘overwhelming force.’ Why? Because Israeli leaders say that they don’t really want to risk that many Israeli boy’s lives. Eli Ishai, ultra-orthodox Shas party leader, and member of the Israeli security and defense committee, and one of those who abstained from the vote approving the ground force, said he wanted more of an air campaign. “If Hezbollah fires rockets from a village, destroy the village,” he said. “Destroy ten, twenty, thirty villages, and the Lebanese will stop Hezbollah from sending the rockets. They’ll pay such a steep price that they’ll call off the attacks.” He also said, “The air war is better than risking soldiers’ lives on the ground.” A lot of Israeli mothers would agree with him.

One knesset member, a former Mossad operative, said that Israel would face one fierce battle after another on the way to the Litani river, 18-miles from the Israeli border. Some Israeli analysts say the cost of as many as 200 soldiers would be killed in the fighting. Early Thursday morning the Israeli army announced officially what had been rumoured earlier in the day: fifteen Israeli soldiers had been killed, forty injured, in fierce fighting. The worst losses Israel has suffered so far.

Israel’s former Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, just back from a PR tour in London, said it took time but he got the message across. He told them that no nation will allow its citizens to be bombed incessantly without striking back. Israel has already absorbed over 3,400 rockets. Another 150 fell today. During the famous Blitz in London the Nazis only sent 4,000 missiles at Britain. Ah, he said, but the British countered they were being bombed by Hitler. Netanyahu scoffed at that. To Israel, Nasrallah is Israel’s Hitler. Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is Israel’s Hitler. If he’s not stopped, one day the missiles will hit Paris, London, Madrid. But that’s something we’ve been hearing for a while.

Gain initiative, gain momentum, get Hezbollah off base. But Hezbollah’s leader Sheik Nasrallah said on his Al Manara TV tonight that he was ready for an Israeli force moving farther north. One of the commentators said Hezbollah hopes to draw Israeli troops north, suck them into a trap already set. And Israel is marching in, quickly. Let’s hope the Israeli’s have some sort of intelligent battle plan. Yesterday Israel switched commanders on the Northern Front. Maybe the new guy has better ideas.

Quagmire. A neighbor’s son is in Lebanon. He’s an officer in the paratroopers. His parents are worried. Understandable. Israel TV showed scenes of the wounded in Haifa’s Rambam hospital, visited by their family, and army chums off for a few hours from the front. “I was lucky. The guys that saved me were brave. They fought their way from cover to get me, and bring me back,” said a paratroop captain. In the bed beside him a soldier lay in bed, his hand bandaged up to the elbow. “Soon as they let me I’m going back to the unit.” He was only a sergeant, but one of the guys who pulled his captain to safety. Now they’re side by side in the hospital.

And they’re not alone. Seventeen soldiers were wounded today, five seriously. Serious usually means close to death. Other reports say that at least five soldiers were killed. All this just a few miles from the Israeli-Lebanese border During the day it was discovered that a huge Hezbollah arms cache was hidden in a couple of homes in a hilltop village overlooking the Israeli border. An Israeli sapper unit was filmed going across the border, setting their charges, pulling back, then detonating the dynamite, razing the homes. The secondary explosion of the Russian supplied Sagar rockets sent out a dark black plume of smoke into the clear blue summer sky.

Israeli commentators talk about a war forced upon Israel. Not something that was asked for. Residents of the northern communities, near the Lebanese border, were highly supportive of the new initiative. “Israel can’t be held captive, nor hostage,” said Gen. Yosi Peled, former commander of the Northern Front. “These rockets keep falling on Israeli citizens. Some of these people have been in the shelters for 30 days. That is unacceptable. The Army has to go in, strong, in force, or three or four years from now we’ll be back in the bomb shelters.”

Dovish Meretz, of course, was one of those out against the increased invasion. If all conflicts end in negotiations, let’s save lives and start talking now. But most of the country doesn’t agree with them. Most of the country is getting ready to put on their uniforms and report for duty. It would be nice if talking would solve the problems, but talk to whom?

Hezbollah leader Nasrallah has said he encourages the Lebanese government’s intention to send 15,000 troops into South Lebanon. He said he’d been against it because the Lebanese army wasn’t as prepared for war against Israel as Hezbollah, which is why Hezbollah had taken control of Southern Lebanon, (and set up a State within a state in Lebanon with two cabinet ministers and 14 members of the Lebanese parliament) but now accepts the idea as a good one. He also rejects out of hand a multi-national force in Southern Lebanon. Especially a “vigorous” force with the ability to disarm Hezbollah. However, even Lebanon’s PM Siniora’s proposal of the Lebanese force doesn’t include enforcing UN Resolution 1559, which calls for disarming Hezbollah. Siniora knows what happens to people who oppose Hezbollah in Lebanese politics.

Israel’s stated goal is to weaken Hezbollah, drive them out of South Lebanon, if possible create conditions for a Lebanon without Hezbollah and Nasrallah, then turn the territory they occupy in southern Lebanon over to a strong multi-national force. Tonight the Israeli government started to implement those goals even more seriously.

The evacuation of residents of the northern towns and cities has begun in earnest as well. Tent cities were set up in Rosh Haayin, just outside of Tel Aviv, in Petach Tivka, in Beer Sheva, and in other towns and cities. A few days respite for those people with no place to go, and no means to go there. Government hired buses pulled up today in the north to take many residents stuck in bomb shelters to these tent camps in the center of the country. They’ll get beds, or at least mattresses on the floor, food, and live shows provided by Israeli entertainers who’ve volunteered for the purpose. All this because of Nasrallah. So far over 300,000 people have left their homes because of this war. Over 100 Israeli killed. A third of them Israeli Arabs.

Israel TV has begun broadcasting reports from Lebanese citizens who surprisingly enough agree that Iran is responsible for the destruction of Lebanon These Lebanese say they are tired of Hezbollah’s control of Lebanon. Reportedly over 80 per cent of the Lebanese were against Hezbollah before the war, but the numbers dropped, naturally, when Israel started retaliating for Hezbollah attacks on Israel. Lebanon is being hit, hard. Nearly a million Lebanese are on the road, fleeing Israeli counter-attacks. Many are boiling mad at Israel, but mad at Hezbollah for dragging them into this pit. Nasrallah is being criticized. Perhaps that’s why PM Siniora finally made his surprising statement that he was going to send his Army down south. Perhaps his nation has finally started to show some teeth and bite Nasrallah back.

So far this war has cost Israel about $1.5 Billion in direct expenses, according to Israel’s finance minister Hirschson. Where will this money come from? Budget cuts. Cuts in subsidies to the poor, cuts in education, cuts across the board. School starts soon. Where will the kids from the north be when classes begin? Tough times now, tougher times ahead.

Meanwhile the list of friends with kids in Lebanon grows longer by the day. Do you call, ask how the boys are, or wait? What is the proper etiquette for war?

At night we say a prayer for the boys in Lebanon we know are there, for the boys in the hospital, for the boys fresh in the ground, and for the three boys captured by Hezbollah over a month ago, at the start of this mess. When you’re far away from the front, what else can you do?

August 8, 2006 Day 28 War in Israel

August 8, 2006 Day 28, War in Israel

In the supermarket this morning, Miriam, a grade school teacher, said her three sons are in Lebanon, reserve soldiers, all called up a few weeks ago. “I heard from two of them, but the third one,” she said, sighing. “I haven’t heard from him in three days.”

Tonight, at the wedding of a friend, overlooking the Kidron valley and the old city in Jerusalem, a young woman sat away from the festivities, frantically punching numbers on her cell phone. Her husband had been in Lebanon for ten days. She hadn’t heard from him in a day and a half. The radio announced three Israeli soldiers were killed. She was worried that a dreaded phone call might come. Or that gut-wrenching knock at the door with bad news.

Another guest at the wedding was also worried. Avraham had two children in the army. His daughter was in an underground shelter, working in Army intelligence. But his son was an officer in the tank corps. A tank commander with a squad of tanks under his orders. Lot of responsibility for a 22-year old. “When he said he wanted to go into the tank corp. instead of army intelligence, I said, ‘sure, why not?’ Everyone knows that tanks are passé. No one uses them. The government is cutting them out of the army. And what about the hi-tech anti-missile systems to protect the tanks? ‘No budget, sorry. Besides, who needs tanks?’ Battle plans don’t include tanks anymore. Don’t include wars, even. Has to be safe, right? But no. Now it’s the tanks that are right out there in front. And my son with them. Wish he had those anti-missile systems, too.”

Avraham recently took a job in Haifa. “It’s sort of a ghost town. Not much going on.” What happens when the sirens go off? “I go into the bomb shelter like everyone else.”
But he wasn’t as worried about himself as he was about his son. “I hope this ends soon.” What did Avraham think was the solution? “Not much to do, is there. Fight them. That’s what has to happen. Some how or another eliminates the threat.”

The last story showed the Israeli heart even in the army. When the “Tzav shomna” emergency reserve call up order went out, the press wondered aloud at the effect it would have on the public. As of today everyone was surprised, there was more than 100 per cent response to the call-up. Not just those who had received the call up were appearing, but also volunteers. That’s how they got to more than 100 per cent.

One young man in the neighborhood just finished his three-year compulsory service, and received a call-up notice. He went. When he showed up at the base his commanding officer told him that since so many guys were showing up for reserve duty, ready to fight in Lebanon, the army had decided to let those guys who’d just finished their compulsory duty go home.

But many of the neighborhood kids are fighting in Lebanon. Fighting as in going house to house with an M-16 in their hands, their stomachs tightened, the adrenaline pumping. In an Israel TV interview, a reserve soldier in Lebanon said, “Sure I’m scared. But it keeps you sharp. Aware. You never really sleep. You just do what you have to do, eyes open all the time.”

Morale in Israel is surprisingly high. Most of the population is still a strong supporter of the war. Even those stuck in the bomb shelters in Kryiat Shmona. Israel TV shows footage of those poor people, still in bomb shelters after four weeks. Most of the bomb shelters were not prepared for long-term use. Frequently, the toilets don’t work, if there are toilets. The air-conditioning doesn’t work, because there isn’t any. And the kids. The kids. Imagine kids restricted to a bomb shelter for a month. Coming out to get some air, but then dashing back down the stairs when the sirens go off, as they always do. The TV cameras show the pain on their faces. Mom listens to the sirens, the kids cringe, the bombs fall. “Hear that? Hear that?” Mom asks the reporter. Sure, he hears it. The sirens go off all day; the bombs fall several times an hour.

Today, again, nearly 200 missiles fell. Some time yesterday rockets fell on a local school in Kyriat Shmona. The bomb took a big bite out of the exterior wall. The ball bearings packed into the explosive tore little holes in the classroom. It’s these ball bearings that tear people up like meat grinders. Luckily the school was empty. Summer vacation. These kids are spending their summer vacations in a bomb shelter.

When the Germans bombed London incessantly, the citizens took to the underground, camped out there for hours, days at a time. The bombing went on for about nine months. One day it stopped. The Londoners came up and started their lives again. But PM Churchill took the opportunity to help decimate Germany. Recently I worked on a film that required me to scan footage of the destruction of German cities. Pleased Soviet soldiers, cigarettes in their mouths, arms around a local beauty, smiled at the cameras. All around them was rubble, a wall here, two walls there, the rest piles of bricks. Churchill must have been happy.

The Israelis are now in the middle of the blitz. Nothing is going easy. One woman reported bringing her TV and video into the bomb shelter in her building. During a break in the bombing she went to see how the world looked above ground. When she returned she discovered one of the other people who’d been using the shelter had left town, heading to the safety of the middle of the country. They took the TV and video with them. Who ever said there were no Jewish thieves?

Why are these people still in the shelters after a month? That’s a question that was asked frequently on the press. Today the government announced that 10,000 residents of the north who’d been stuck in the shelters would be given a government sponsored break, a few days in a hotel in the beachside resort of Netanya, or Tiberias along the Sea of Galilee, even though Tiberias has been hit by rockets itself. Still for those with ‘shelter fever’ the break is a God sent.

They ask why they’re subjected to this torture? They ask why Hezbollah has to keep firing? Why did they start in the first place? It’s a question many people ask, but few can answer.

Almost everyone you talk to has a family member who has been called up. The army has decided, after a month, to expand the fight, go deeper into Lebanon in an attempt to quell the rocket fire on Israeli citizens. This isn’t just a war. This is terrorism. It’s not like Hezbollah hordes invading Israel, although they would if they could, but rockets, hundreds of them a day. A few years back it was a bomb or two each day in Jerusalem, or Tel Aviv, or Hadera, or Netanya. Then it was called the Intifada. It’s always called something.

These bombs aren’t going to topple the country. Not going to destroy us, said then Prime Minister Yitchak Rabin of the suicide bombers. Tonight, at the wedding overlooking the old city of Jerusalem, a university professor said the same thing. The rockets aren’t going to destroy Israel. Not unless the warheads are filled with chemical, biological, or nuclear war heads. 100 dead so far from the rockets that fall every hour will seem like a gift compared to the thousands or tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands that would die if weapons of mass destruction were used.

A horrible thought. Hezbollah would suffer the ultimate retaliation of Israel’s wrath. This time it wouldn’t be a few thousand troops in Lebanon, it would be the full frightening force of Israel’s arsenal unleashed on a mostly guiltless, although acquiescent, population. But as William Goldman wrote in The Princess Bride, “Who ever said life was fair?”

The new initiative by the Lebanese Government is “interesting,” according to Israeli PM Olmert. This bold move by Lebanese PM Fouad Siniora comes on the heels of the Arab League that met yesterday in Beirut. Siniora says he’s ready to send 15,000 soldiers to take over South Lebanon, just so the Israelis won’t be there. Lebanon says they’ll be joined by UNIFIL the United National International Force in Lebanon. UNIFIL, has been in Southern Lebanon since 1983, and has done nothing to stop Hezbollah in all those years. Israelis scoff at the idea that they’d do anything now.

Other countries that have offered Lebanon help are Indonesia and Malaysia, both practitioners of fundamentalist Islam, both virulently anti-Israeli. Team them up with the Lebanese Army, which is made up largely of Shiites, like Hezbollah, and you have a sure-fire recipe for ratcheting up the war.

But the paradox is this was precisely what Israel called for at the beginning of the conflict. Why doesn’t Lebanon take over the South? And here they are, calling Israel’s bluff. Sort of puts Israel’s PM Olmert in a tough spot. But what is needed is a non-biased international force. Lebanon opposes that idea. So does Hezbollah. So does Syria, which doesn’t want to lose it’s growing influence in Lebanon.

Meanwhile the Israeli soldiers continue to report for reserve duty. The few is becoming many. Sooner or later Israel’s military planners will stop fighting the last war and start planning and fighting this one. Given time Israel will deal with Hezbollah. The new change in Israel’s military leadership on the Northern front will reportedly be more aggressive in pursuing a military victory on the ground, not in the air. The ‘just a little pregnant’ scenario will go to a full-term affair. The men reporting for duty are ready for the fight, which will get worse before it gets better. The mothers of these men have reason to worry. They won’t all come back. And they won’t become Shahidim (martyrs) either. They’ll just be more dead Jewish/Israeli Arab guys who fought to keep the maniacs from destroying their people, yet again. I hope that if there’s a Heaven, they’ll be up there. If not, they fought to protect 'Mom,' not impose some radical fanatic belief in how God wants the world to run. Too bad the moms of those crazies didn’t talk sense into them when they had the chance. Would have saved a lot of good people, on both sides of the border.

August 7, 2006 Day 27 War in Israel

JERUSALEM MAGAZINE Vol 1. No. 1

August 7, 2006 Day 27, War in Israel

Israel’s Defense Minister Amir Peretz has done what military leaders are supposed to do: he’s threatened Lebanon that if no diplomatic solution is found, the Israeli army will strike all over Lebanon with all its force to take out the Hezbollah threat.

In a speech to Arab Leaders Lebanon’s Prime Minister broke into tears, begging the Arab leaders to help him. “Israel is destroying us. We don’t have a bridge left.”

I hate to see grown men cry. Mr. Siniora probably doesn’t deserve the punishment he’s undergoing. But Hezbollah, which is using Lebanon as a launching pad against Israel, has hijacked his country. What does he expect? Hezbollah moves freely around Lebanon. In order to stop the trucks with the missile launcher from going place to place, the bridges are destroyed, the roads torn up. Sorry. That’s what happens when you allow one of your democratically elected parties that sit in your government to send 3,000 missiles onto a neighboring country, killing nearly 100 people, injuring over a thousand, sending hundreds of thousands fleeing from their homes. What did he expect? A morning after bouquet of flowers?

We all know about the mistakes newspapers make, and then print a retraction on page 99 in a one-inch paragraph that is buried among the want ads. Did anyone come out and say, “A mistake was made at Kafr Kana. Seventy people weren’t killed, only 28. And Hezbollah indeed uses Kana as a launching pad. Yesterday it was bombed again; this time Israel had video of missiles launched at Israel.” You’ll never see that retraction, anywhere. But it should be there.

Civilians are dying in Lebanon. A terrible shame. Really. 28 instead of 60 is still 28 too many. Who wants innocent men, women and children to die? After the Nazi murderers slaughtered six million Jews, another five million Gypsies, intellectuals, gays, and others, not to mention the tens of millions of soldiers who died, who can justify innocent lives lost? And why did the tragedy happen in Germany? Because a maniac was running the war. Certifiable. Should have been in an insane asylum, but instead he was running what was once one of the world’s most respected countries that produced hordes of cultural icons, scientific accomplishments, great thinkers, artists and intellectuals. To this day it is a mystery to some, like me, how he came to power.

Sure, the economy was in shambles. Unemployment was rampant. Hitler was a charismatic speaker who blamed the Jews for all the world’s problems. Not the first time in history, either. But believe it or not there were men in Hitler’s government who saw that the path the Nazis were taking was a dead end. An underground formed among some in the German military as early as 1937. (Admiral William Canaris, who ran the Abwer, German Military Intelligence, saved over 500 Jews, including the 6th Lubavitch Rebbe) Mostly these were aristocrats who looked upon the Austrian corporal as so far beneath their station as to be insignificant. I doubt if any of the Von whoevers would have invited Hitler to dinner, even when he was Chancellor of Germany.

I’d like to believe that Prime Minister Siniora is like these anti-Hitler patriots. I’d like to think that his country will be saved by Lebanese patriots who will rise up and say, “Hezbollah has kidnapped our country. We have to stop them.”

It didn’t work in Germany. I’m afraid it won’t work in Lebanon. Most commentators now say that Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah will come out of this war the leader of Lebanon. Much to the chagrin of many Lebanese patriots. Like Hezbollah’s leaders, Hitler wasn’t working in a vacuum. He had supporters. He had partners. He had other countries that backed him. The minor difference here is that as of now Nasrallah is unequal to his backers in Iran or Syria. Israel’s analysts think that Nasrallah has ambitions not only to rise above the stature of Iran’s Prime Minister Ahmadinejhad, but even above the founder of the modern Islamic Fundamentalism, Khomeini. A frightening thought..

When the Israeli TV and Radio commentators ask the analysts why the loyal Lebanese don’t rise up, speak out, they are reminded of the late Lebanese leader Rafik Hariri, a powerful wealthy man, who was murdered by a roadside bomb that killed him, his bodyguards, innocent bystanders, and left a crater in the street the neighborhood kids could fill with water and use as a swimming pool.

Brave men like Hariri are hard to find. In Lebanon they don’t last long. Syria is suspected of engineering Hariri’s assassination. The UN got as far as interviewing high-ranking Syrians, but of course, the investigation petered out. Syria didn’t want Hezbollah gone. Hezbollah is one of Syria’s weapons against the Israelis. So the other Lebanese who want change, who want their country back from Hezbollah, have a problem. They want to stay alive. That’s probably why Siniora is crying.

Stalin, the infamous ruler of the Soviet Union, thought he could outfox Hitler. But Stalin realized Hitler was more ambitious and dangerous than he could imagine. Stalin was double-crossed by Hitler. It was Hitler’s great mistake, because Russia, who lost 20 million men in WWII, was a prime cause of Hitler’s defeat. I don’t think that Syria’s young ruler Bashir Assad realizes he’s got a tiger by the tail. One day Nasrallah will turn on Assad and eat him alive.

Nasrallah wants nothing less than to turn Lebanon into a fundamentalist Islamic country. The plan would be to then turn the entire region into a similar entity. Syria, as of now a non-religious country, would get swallowed up whole. Hard to believe Bashir Assad, an educated man who studied in London, doesn’t understand that. But then Assad has reportedly opened up his weapons arsenal to Hezbollah, something his father, Hafiz Assad, the ruler of Syria for decades, never did, even though he was an arch-enemy of Israel. Even though he turned down a peace agreement with Israel, who was willing to give back all of the Golan Heights except a strip 500 yards wide along the Sea of Galilee. Assad the elder tried to keep Hezbollah a respectful distance. The son, supported by other men blinded by hatred, ambition and probably greed, encouraged him.

Some in Israel say that it is in Syria’s interest to now take advantage of a diplomatic initiative, talk with Israel, so that Hezbollah can be reined in. Other analysts say that seems doubtful. This current conflict, according to some experts, has been a windfall for Syria. Up until now the UN already chased Bashir Assad out of Lebanon with implied threats of war, since Syria is one of the “Axis of Evil” and quite obviously is an active supporter of “Terrorism.” Now Syria is back. The US is on the ropes. Their ‘boy’ Israel is getting his butt kicked. In the Arab world perception is everything. (For those who aren’t impressed by a Mercedes, a Rolex, or their own Lear Jet, perception is unimportant. But those people are usually monks in an ashram in India. Even then, once they leave the Ashram they buy a Rolls on the profits of their speeches about ‘enlightenment.’)

The rise of Hezbollah may be the fall of the West. Nasrallah is now perceived as an icon of Arab success against Israel. Against the West. He is energizing Islamic fundamentalists around the world. He has driven the Palestinians, in Israel, in Gaza, in Detroit, to a fever pitch. Israel can be stopped! America can be stopped. Islam is on a roll.

You can well imagine that Iran is jubilant. Their proxie is doing well. They have distracted the world from their nuclear ambitions and are carrying on, building weapons of mass destruction. They may not be happy until they’ve managed to give one to Hezbollah, shipped carefully over the border to Syria, and then on to Lebanon. Or perhaps down to Gaza. The nuclear fallout wouldn’t bother the Iranians. They’re upwind. We won’t talk about what they has planned for the USA.

Science fiction? I don’t think so. Hundreds of rockets fall on Israel every day. The area around Kryiat Shmona is thick with smoke from forest fires. The hundreds of thousands stuck in the North who hear the sirens, the shriek of the incoming rockets, wouldn’t think it was so far fetched. Several times an hour the talk shows are interrupted by the official announcement, in case they don’t hear or don’t have sirens, reading a list of towns, villages, cities, whose residents are to immediately take cover because of incoming rockets. Hour after hour, day after day, week after week. Now will it become month after month?

Will a multi-national force with teeth and muscle come in to take over? Which nutsy country would send their men into this conflagration? First Israel has to quell the four thousand hard-core SS type fighters, make it safe for the UNIFIL forces. Then maybe the UNFIL forces will come in. Then maybe they’ll be peace. But by all accounts, all diplomacy would accomplish now is to postpone the next round in the war of the civilizations. Hitler didn’t go away until he had nothing to live for. Until his crazy dreams had been dashed. These maniacs aren’t going away either, not without help.