Time Will Tell

After more than 508 days without an elected government, Israel's largest was sworn in on Sunday. 35 ministers were affirmed by the Knesset with another two to take over their positions in 18-months when, or if, the rotation agreement between Prime Minister Netanyahu and alternate Prime Minister Gantz goes into effect. This will be the largest government in Israel's history.

And the most expensive. Each minister gets their own office and staff and car and driver and expense account. Ministries also function as a way for politicians to repay those who supported them by handing out plum jobs associated with the ministry. Analysts point out that the cost of this government will be at the expense of important and much needed improvements in health, education and welfare. According to David Horowitz, editor of the Times of Israel, "This government will be exploiting, not serving, the people."

Israel radio's Reshet Bet political commentator Chanan Krystal said that Netanyahu handed out posts to those who had been most vociferous in promoting his agenda delegitimizing the courts at the expense of old time Likud party officials who were not, in Netanyahu's eyes, as supportive. Some who were lower down on the Likud list drawn up for the last elections skipped over those who were higher up.  This created a minor crisis on Thursday when veteran Likud ministers were did not receive an assignment. Netanyahu asked for an extension to the swearing in, scheduled for last Thursday, to sort out the mess.

Still, some Likud loyalists were given posts beneath what they considered their just due.
And some, like former Jerusalem mayor Nir Barakat, were left out completely. In Israel, the higher up on the election list you were determined which ministerial post you received. The most prestigious posts at the top were of course Prime Minister, then Defense Minister, then Foreign Minister, and on down the line. In this government Blue and White leader Benny Gantz received the Defense Minister post until, after 18-months, he becomes Prime Minister in a rotation agreement. Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid has called the new government "crooked" and predicted it would not last long.

One of the more controversial appointments in the eyes of Likud critics was Amir Ohana as Public Security Minister. Ohana, the former Justice Minister, had been criticized for trying to derail the prosecution of Netanyahu. His new post puts him in charge of the police and the police investigation bureau. Considered a Netanyahu lackey, Ohana will have to decide to pursue investigations against Netanyahu that have not yet been initiated or concluded.

Yacov Litzman was moved out of the Ministry of Health into the Housing Ministry. Critics say that Litzman will now divert government funds to the ultra-orthodox community for their housing needs at the expense of young secular couples. Uli Edelstein, former Speaker of the Knesset, was appointed the new Health Minister. Netanyahu loyalist Yariv Lavine, who had spoken out against Conservative and Reform Judaism, was appointed Speaker of the Knesset.

One of the Likud stalwarts, Knesset member Chaim Katz, could not be reappointed to a ministerial post since he is under indictment for fraud and breach of trust in his capital market activity. One critic points out the absurd situation where a Knesset member under indictment cannot be appointed as a minister but the same restriction doesn't apply to the Prime Minister. Netanyahu's trial is scheduled to begin on May 24th.

In their acceptance speeches, both Netanyahu and Gantz stressed this was a unity government formed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nearly one million Israelis are unemployed. Restaurants, which are expected to open next week, are still closed. But schools began today for all grades including kindergartens and preschools. This frees up parents to leave their baby-sitting duties and return to work. Still, economists predict hard times ahead not only in Israel but around the world due to the pandemic.

Last week, U.S. Sec. of State Mike Pompeo flew into Israel. The apparent reason was to convince Israel not to sign any deals with China for a desalinization plant. And to express the US dissatisfaction with Israel doing any business with China. Pundits expected Pompeo to weigh in on Netanyahu's plan to annex the West Bank but he demurred. Jordan's King Hussein has warned of dire consequences if Israel annexes the West Bank. And both the EU and the UN have warned against the move. U.S. Pres. Trump, however, is in favor of annexation as part of his Peace Plan. In an unrelated development, China's ambassador to Israel Du Wei, 57, was found dead in his official residence in Herzliya of an apparent heart attack.  

Israel is presently undergoing a severe heat wave with temperatures in the low 40's centigrade, (@110 F). Some say the heat will kill the COVID-19 but others point out that countries like Australia had severe temperatures but still had the virus. Others point out that while the outdoor temperatures may be soaring most people stay indoors.
Israel's parks also opened up. Ostensibly these parks are to adhere to strict ministry of health restrictions. One reporter visited the Safari Park (Zoo) in Ramat Gan, just outside of Tel Aviv. Tickets were purchased on line, according to the website's instructions. The visitor had to chose a time to come to the Safari Park, hourly beginning at 9:00. The reporter chose 12:00 but arrived at 11:00 to find a long line of cars at the entry booth. The attendant pointed to the sign that echoed that on the webiste: masks, social distancing, etc. The attendant received the receipt for the 12:00 entry without a word, and said, "Don't forget to wear a mask." One of the passengers in the car did not have a ticket and the attendant sold one on the spot paid for by credit card only.

Ramat Gan Safari Zoo

The parking lot was 3/4 full. Thousands of people of all ages were inside the park but only about 30 percent of the people wore masks. Every ten minutes or so a loud speaker announcement reminded visitors to wear masks and keep social distancing rules. But social distancing was forgotten. It was as if the epidemic had passed. And perhaps it had. The rate of infection in Israel has dropped, the number of people on ventilators has dropped.

The malls also opened. Temperatures were taken by the guard at the entrance, but contrary to the hype, no telephone numbers were taken to track people once in the mall so as to limit the number of shoppers.

An Israeli research team at Ben Gurion University of the Negev says they've developed a breath analyzer that can determine if a person has COVID-19 within 30-seconds. The team says that the results are 90 percent accurate. The machines will cost @$40,000 once they go into production and each test would cost @$40.

The worst appears to be over.  Now the question if will the government be able to do more than give cabinet posts and jobs to loyalists, bring Israel out of the present crisis, and prepare the population for the possibility of another wave of infections in the fall?

That's if the government doesn't fall should Netanyahu be quickly convicted. However, the odds of that are slim. The coalition agreements allows Netanyahu to dissolve the government and go to new elections should any High Court decision make him step down. Also, he is to remain in power until he has exhausted the legal battle including appeals. Time will tell if this government lasts, succeeds, or becomes an joke.

Savior of the World

Savior of the World

Amazing. According to a poll conducted by Israeli pollsters 74% of the Israeli people think temporary Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did a good job handing the COVID-19. In fact, it was a few people in the Health Ministry who fought with their incompetent Minister and demanded the closing of schools, restaurants, and synagogues. According to media reports,

Netanyahu made a statement that if the virus returns it could "end humanity."https://www.timesofisrael.com/if-it-reinfects-virus-could-end-humanity-netanyahu-reportedly-warned-mks/Do scare tactics work?
 

Some analysts say that scare tactics kept people indoors and paranoid about some microbe killing them. Others point out that the population was loaded up with such fear that those in charge were the ones you had to trust (Trump excluded). At least in Israel. And that savior, say some critics, was Netanyahu. Now, these critics point out, if Netanyahu isn't supported, the world may come to an end. 

While Israel is coming out of the lockdown, and life returning to normal, with masks and social distancing, that isn't to say that a second wave, perhaps much deadlier, of COVID-19 won't come back in the fall, according to health officials in the USA. In fact, the US health agencies are preparing for just such an eventuality. This time, if the virus hits, they'll be ready. Netanyahu won't be leading the fight worldwide. But, say his critics, he may take credit for it.

Veteran observers say that former Prime Minister, and war hero, Ariel Sharon pulled something similar when he initiated the withdrawal from Gaza.He was nearly under indictment for the Greek Island Affair (his son took the fall instead and went to jail).

However, say these observers, while this withdrawal was going on and the country on the verge of war the question arose, "Which judge has the courage to indict Sharon when he is the warrior needed to defend the country." And indeed, these observers say, Sharon was never indicted. 

Sharon was, in the opinion of some, the tutor and role model for disgraced former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who was jailed for bribery, and Netanyahui on how to steal and get away with it. Olmert wasn't as good a student, say the pundits, as Netanyahu. 

Back in the day, when Ehud Barak ran a campaign for PM called "Tzav Shmoneh" (the call up notice reserve soldiers get during a war ordering them to their units). Again, scare tactics. Now, say the pundits, here's Netanyahu who goes to trial on May 24th after having avoided any interference by the High Court, even when he engineered a change in the basic law, essentially allowing two Prime Ministers under a questionable rotation deal that should have been struck down, sailing into his fifth term as prime minister."A shandah," cry his critics.


Others compare what's happening with Lt. Gen Michael Flynn, who confessed to lying to the FBI twice, and is now free of any charges, to Netanyahu to perhaps discern what he has in mind. Netanyahu, say his critics, has postured that he is so essential to the well-being of Israel, if not the world, that the courts should either dismiss the charges against him, or look so favorably upon him that he is judged innocent, or atleast not guilty, of any of the indictments against him.Sharon did it, say the sages. Flynn did it with help from the Donald.Bibi will probably do it, with help from, of all people Gantz.What a world, they moan.


Others question the inefficiency and unpreparedness of the Health Ministry when faced with the epidemic. Analysts say that the Health Ministry was the neglected child for years.Monies that should have gone to hospitals and medical facilities were drained from what should have been the Health Ministry's budget and given to favorite sons, settlements, ultra-orthodox day schools and yeshivot, roads to nowhere, who kept the coalition afloat.

Social Welfare budgets were also drained before they were even submitted. One jokester asked if the public remembered the song, "Where have all the flowers gone?...."Now says the jokester, the lyrics are "Where has all the money gone?"And who was the PM during these financial shenanigans?

"Need I say?" asks the jokester. "Well I will. It was Netanyahu.
Twenty years of neglect. And a microbe erases all the misdeeds.The microbe that now will end humanity. Go Figure."

Not Yet Out Of The Woods

Not Yet Out Of The Woods

leave a comment »

The Los Alamos National Laboratory, according to the Washington Post, has found mutations of the COVID-19 that are apparently more contagious than the original. These mutations are spreading around the world. The laboratory wants to warn researchers that these mutations should be considered when working on a vaccine or by the time the vaccine is on the market it will not be effective.
These mutations apparently replicate faster than the original. One, called D614G has different spikes than those seen in the original coronavirus strain. The lab speculates that one strain hit the west coast and a mutation the east coast of the USA. These mutations are not surprising, said Dr. Peter Pitts, but it does increase the urgency to protect the public through social isolation and other means.

Meanwhile, Pfizer pharmaceuticals has begun human testing multiple versions of an experimental vaccine this week, starting on ages 18-55 and moving to over 85 if the tests prove effective and safe.
While in Israel, according to Israel’s Channel 11 news, the National Emergency Authority has issued a forecast that a second wave of infections may hit around the time of the Jewish New Year. The authority called on the government to use this period to prepare hospitals for a substantial increase in respiratory ventilation treatment capacity.

And Israel’s Health Ministry director general said yesterday that HMO clinics will begin serological (blood) tests of 100,000 citizens to see how widely the virus has spread across the country and how susceptible the population is to a new wave of infections.

Israel is slowly opening up the schools. Next week the pre-schools are scheduled to open followed by other grades. However, Marco Jelli, a mathematical epidemiologist from Trento, Italy said closing schools reduces the surge of the virus by 40% -60% and slows the epidemic. Tests have shown that children who test positive have just as much of the virus as adults and are just as infectious.
Dr. Christian Drostan, a virologist in Berlin, tested 60,000 people for COVID-19 and said, “I’m a bit reluctant to happily recommend to politicians that we can now reopen day cares and schools.” However, Dr. Jennifer Nozzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins, said, “I do worry at some point the accumulated harm from the measures may exceed the harm to the kids from the virus.” She inferred the schools could not be closed for long.

Experts all agree that students should be scheduled to come to school at different times, reduce the number of students in the building at any one time, desks should be at least 2 meters apart, with separation shields if possible. Large gatherings of students should be avoided.
So far, restrictions have mostly been lifted in Israel. Israel has essentially emerged from quarantine. Malls and outdoor markets have reopened. Restaurants are still awaiting the ok. Masks and social distancing are still required when outside. Groups are limited to 20 except for a wedding where the number rises to 50. Preschool begins on Sunday. Grades above four are still waiting to hear when their school can begin. Children and grandchildren can visit parents and grandparents. Although hugging and kissing are not recommended.

Prof. Yehuda Carmeli, an epidemiologist, said that “We are at a dangerous juncture.” According to a Times of Israel report, Carmeli said, “But the economy demands we do more. A lot will depend on what we see happen in the coming weeks. It will be very difficult emotionally and socially for all of us if we have to go back to curfew at some point.” He thought schools should have just ended for kids over 10. “We were close to the summer break, anyway.” Kids over 10 could be home alone allowing their parents to go back to work.

The USA’s Center for Disease Control has predicted that opening up the country would result in a spike in the virus. While they have seen a downturn in NYC, Texas and Florida have both recorded a sharp increase.

According to reports, Israel is one of the world’s leaders in testing people. The findings are that young people are the most affected but have a low mortality rate. Fewer than 5% over 80 are infected. Israel with 260 or so deaths, has done well compared to countries with a similar population, like Sweden, with 2,500 deaths, Belgium with 7,500 deaths. The USA has proportionally 300 times the number of deaths as Israel.

Many early spreaders were young people returning from vacation. The others were from Purim parties where people who didn’t know they had the virus infected others.
Experts all agree that masks slow the spread of the virus. Researchers at Ben Gurion University have discovered that surface coatings based on nanomaterials they have developed, with both antiviral and antibacterial properties, can be used to fight the current coronavirus. The nanomaterial contain nanoparticles of safe metal ions and polymers, including copper, that can be turned into a liquid and can be sprayed on surfaces to prevent the virus from adhering. Apparently, the coronavirus doesn’t like copper.

This new spray, if it proves effective, would be applied to surfaces in hospitals and ships and schools to prevent the virus from spreading.

Also, according to Ynetnews, Israel has isolated a key coronavirus antibody at its main biological research laboratory, the defense minister said on Monday, calling the step a “significant breakthrough” toward a possible treatment for the COVID-19 pandemic. The “monoclonal neutralizing antibody” developed at the Israel Institute for Biological Research (IIBR) “can neutralize it (the disease-causing coronavirus) inside carriers’ bodies,” outgoing Defense Minister Naftali Bennett said in a statement.

POLITICS
The High Court has ruled that PM Netanyahu’s is eligibile to run for PM. The Likud and Blue and White made changes to the coalition agreement that the court found objectionable. The Knesset ratified the agreement Thursday.

The swearing in will take place on May 13 as coalition wrangling continues.
Current Defense Minister Bennet is vying for the Health Ministry since Blue and White’s Gantz will become the new Defense Minister until, after 18-months, he become Prime Minister in the rotation agreement. However, it was announced on Thursday that a Health Minister has been chosen, just not Bennet.

A flurry of criticism has arisen over Netanyahu’s announcement he will annex 130 settlements in the West Bank according to think tank scholars David Makovsky and Dennis Ross who wrote in a Times of Israel opinion piece. The pair say this is Netanyahu last hurrah as a PM, and knowing that he won’t run again, and wants to become President Netanyahu can now enforce the Trump peace plan and annex the settlements. Risking the wrath of Jordan and other moderate Arab states willing to make an agreement with Israel. Blue and White leader Gantz has said he would support Netanyahu’s initiative.

Emerging From The COVID-19 Into The High Court

Emerging from COVID-19 Into the High Court

leave a comment »

On Sunday, for the first time, the number of infections in Israel has dropped. While over 16,000 have been infected, and over 230 died, the number of seriously ill has dropped as has the number of people on respirators. Israel is beginning to emerge from the COVID-19 isolation.

One million school children from first to third grade have returned to school in Israel.
More grades will return by May 15th. Tens of thousands of Palestinian workers have returned to their jobs in Israel, albeit after having their temperature taken and given a mask.  Grandparents are now allowed to visit their grandchildren. Beauty parlors and barbershops also reopened with staff and customers all wearing masks. For the first time the number of infections has dropped.

The Ministry of Health has approved those openings. That ministry is at odds with the Ministry of Finance, that has proposed a four-stage plan to emerge from the lockdown but without specifying dates.

In the Finance Ministry’s first stage,  malls and outdoor markets will open, and Palestinian workers from the West Bank will be allowed to return to construction jobs in Israel.
For the second stage, group classes and community centers will be opened, but swimming pools in the centers will remain closed. Non-medical health treatments, such as physiotherapy, will be allowed, and nature preserves and museums will reopen, said the report, which did not cite its sources.

In the next stage, movie theaters, theaters for plays, fitness centers, essential flights, auditoriums, restaurants and bars will open for business. Lastly, night clubs, swimming pools, water parks and amusement parks will be opened to the public.

The Health Ministry wants to wait to see if there is a new wave of infections before opening up the country any more. The Health Ministry says the next two weeks will be critical. If more infections arise because of the loosening of the restrictions, then the restrictions would be reimposed.
The Israeli public is straining at the leash. According to police reports more and more people were ignoring the restrictions. On Shabbat, the parks were busy with people still respecting the social distancing rules. However, not everyone wore a mask.

In one park on Shabbat, parents allowed their children to play on the forbidden swings and monkey bars and teeter-tooters. When another a family of friends came by, the father of the first family called out laughing, “Look, see our young criminals.”

According to Israel Channel 12 health commentator Dr. Gabi Barabash, social distancing was more important than the isolation in apartments. As an aside, he also said that once infected a person could not be reinfected in the short term. Those who appeared to be reinfected were probably diagnosed as the result of a test that was taken while they were ill and the results appeared only after the patient was well.

The Israeli cabinet is still deciding on rules for the behavior during the epidemic. Later today, the cabinet is slated to approve outdoor gatherings of up to 20 people, in a decision that will go into effect immediately,  according to the office of Interior Minister Aryeh Deri. Deri represents the ultra-orthodox Shaas party. Some ultra-orthodox rabbis have already ignored the regulations and opened up their Yeshivot. Although they claimed on Israel TV they were enforcing social distancing and wearing masks, the TV footage did not support the claim.
.

High Court of Justice Special Session

Meanwhile, the political crisis continues. Yesterday, Israel’s High Court, sat in an extraordinary televised live session of 11 judges out of 15. The judges all wore masks and plastic dividers separated them.  The court heard motions to clarify if temporary PM Netanyahu could form a coalition while under indictment for three felonies. “Netanyahu has been charged with fraud, breach of trust and accepting bribes in a series of scandals in which he is accused of offering favors to media moguls in exchange for favorable press coverage. He denies the accusations and says he is the victim of a media-orchestrated witch hunt,” wrote Ynetnews.

Attorney General Mandelblit, who indicted Netanyahu, said he saw no legal reason why Netanyahu could not serve as Prime Minister. Observers say the court will be hesitant to interfere with Netanyahu becoming prime minister since the public elected him and the Knesset was set to ratify the coalition agreement of 75 Knesset members. The court has been criticized by Netanyahu’s Likud and others of subverting democracy by taking the decision who would be prime minister out of the hands of the people.

According to YnetNews, “Netanyahu and his allies have long considered the high court a liberal bastion that overreached its boundaries to meddle in political affairs, accusing it of undermining the will of the people as expressed in national elections. His opponents regard the court as the final safeguard of Israeli democracy that has been under dangerous assault from demagogic populists.”
According to AP, Netanyahu is eager to remain in office throughout his trial, using his position to lash out at the judicial system and rally support among his base. The coalition deal also gives him influence over key judicial appointments, creating a potential conflict of interest during an appeals process if he is convicted. No one has forgotten that Netanyahu’s trial is scheduled for the end of May.

However, on Monday, the second day the court sat, the court heard motions concerning the legality of the coalition agreement between the Likud and the Blue and White party.  The agreement was ostensibly drafted as an ’emergency government’ because of the COVID-19 epidemic. But the epidemic appears to be nearing the end. The agreement allows for delaying appointments, and changing rules, over a six-month period due to the epidemic, and perhaps extending those rules over three years that the government is to be in power.

There was an obvious irritation by the court on many of the items in the coalition agreement, including changes in the Basic Law (Israel’s version of the constitution. Israel does not have a constitution and the Basic Law is used instead.) The court appeared concerned that changes in the basic law to allow the rotation would violate the Basic Law. In the agreement not only would there be a rotation after 18-months, but the outgoing Prime Minister, in this case Netanyahu, would still be a Prime Minister but in a secondary position. How can you have two prime ministers, the court asks?
Only if the basic law is changed, said analysts.

The deal, and the new law,  calls for Netanyahu to serve first as prime minister and Blue and White’s Gantz as the designated premier, with the two swapping posts after 18 months. The new position of ‘designated premier’ will enjoy all the trappings of the prime minister, including an official residence and an exemption from a law that requires all public officials, except a prime minister, to resign if charged with a crime. In this case Netanyahu would be exempt from resigning for 36-months, or so he hopes, said one analyst.

Deputy Chief Meltzer (left) Chief Justice Esther Hayut (right)

The court also questioned Netanyahu’s attorney Rebelo why key government appointments like Chief of Police had to wait six months or more as part of the ’emergency government.” Why not appoint these key positions immediately after the government is formed? Why wait?

Then there was the question asked yesterday what would happen if the Knesset voted to ban Netanyahu from becoming PM because of the indictments? “I asked you yesterday for an answer and you didn’t have it. Do you have it today?” asked deputy chief justice Meltzer. Netanyahu’s attorney Rabelo tried to get out of the answer, according to the Channel 11 political analyst, but Meltzer pushed until he got an answer.  ” If that happened, warned Netanyahu’s attorney Rabelo, it would be illegal and the country would go right to new elections.”

There were other items in the agreement, like the “Norwegian Law” that allows any MK who is appointed to a cabinet post to resign temporarily from the Knesset, thereby permitting the next candidate on the party’s list to enter parliament in their place. The court said that the public elected one list, and specific people, and it would be unfair to substitute someone who was not elected.
Chief Justice Esther Hayut ordered Blue and White attorney Bar-On to provide a legal justification for the law within the next 24 hours. Bar-On agreed. After that exchange and the court’s lunch break, Blue and White issued a statement that they were considering cancelling the request to keep the Norwegian law in the agreement

The court also objected to the bloated cabinet with 36 ministers and four deputy ministers, something not seen before.

When the petitioners rose after the lunch break to present their case, against the yet-to-be passed legislation sanctioned by the unity deal, Justice Menachem Mazuz says they’re “irrelevant” to the hearing at hand.“They are political, moral, public arguments… speeches that don’t have a connection to the legal level.. and are irrelevant here,” Mazuz said. The court hinted that it could not rule on the unity government agreement until all the terms have been finalized and the agreement ratified by the Knesset. In other words, the court may refrain from ruling on the agreement at this time.

Most analysts expect the court to rule on the petitions by Thursday, the day the Knesset is scheduled to adjourn for the summer.  Thursday marks the deadline for presenting a new government before new elections are called. If the court rules they have no objection to the coalition agreement until it is ratified, then Netanyahu can go to the Knesset before it adjourns and form a government.

If the coalition agreement is not ratified by the Knesset before the summer break then new elections would be called for sometime in August.The fourth in a year. That would mean, say analysts, that nearly two years would have passed since Netanyahu called for new elections and since Israel last had an elected government.