The Mountain Is Coming

 In 1959 the American ad agency of  Doyle-Dane-Bernbach launched a campaign for the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia. The slogan was “The Mountain is Coming.” What mountain, which mountain, why is this mountain important? Eventually, the meaning became clear. Juan Valdez, a fictional Colombian coffee farmer,  showed the world that Folgers coffee, using 100% Colombian coffee beans grown in the mountains of Colombia, was coming to America.

 

Today, instead of a mountain of coffee we have Omicron. The WHO warned Europe to  expect a veritable Tsunami of the Covid variant called Omicron. This while Britain has reported nearly 100,000 cases of Covid a day, and France nearly 150,000 daily cases. Seemingly, the mountain has arrived in Europe. Nearly 260,000 cases a day of Covid have been reported in the USA.

In Israel, health officials warn that the tsunami of Omicron is due within two weeks or less.  Media reports health officials are concerned that the wave of covid cases threaten to overwhelm the hospital system, already suffering from understaffing and overworked doctors and nurses.

The rise in cases has already begun. Israel reported nearly 4,000 cases of Covid yesterday, the highest number in months. The contagion rate is nearly 3% and the R factor is 1.62. So far in Israel 1,374,453 cases have been reported, with 147 hospitalized, of them 89 in serious condition and of them 39 on ventilators. 78% of the serious cases are unvaccinated. 

In Israel, there are now about 2 million children between the ages of 0-15. So far in Israel 36% of the cases of Covid are children, but this is down from 50%. The drop is attributed to the fierce campaign the government is waging to vaccinate children. The government has  begun sending out mobile vaccination vans to schools across the country.

However, Ynetnews  reports that the Israeli government is now zig-zagging. There is talk in the health ministry of trying ‘herd immunity’ since the new Omicron variant rarely causes serious illness. On the other hand, the government has reinstated the use of the Green Pass for all but vital stores, like supermarkets, pharmacies, HMOs, in the malls. There is also talk of a lockdown of the population to prevent the spread of the Omicron. Which is it to be, pundits ask, herd immunity, or a lockdown.

Worldwide, the number of cases has risen by 11% according to the World Health Organization, with 284,955,429 cases, 5,439,362 deaths, and 27,662, 287 active cases.  In the USA, 54,656,866 cases have been reported, with 844,272 deaths and 12,404,303 active cases. Back in mid-November the USA had 9,239,157 active cases, a rise of over 4 million active cases in about six-weeks. In New York City nearly half of the children hospitalized in New York are under 5.

Israel has 1,374,453 cases with 8243 deaths and 18,652 active cases. Back in mid-November, Israel had only 5,300 active cases and a contagion rate of .95% of those tested.

If there is any good news it’s that that the death rates have not climbed precipitously. In mid-November the death toll in the USA was 787,984, a rise of about 55,000 in six-weeks. 

And some health officials predict that the Omicron will drop off as quickly as it came. According to Bloomberg News, the rate of hospitalization in S. Africa has plunged dramatically, suggesting that the Omicron variant may have peaked there, and provide a harbinger of what’s to happen in the rest of the world. “

So far in South Africa, only 1.7% of identified Covid-19 cases were admitted to hospital in the second week of infections in the fourth wave, compared with 19% in the same week of the third delta-driven wave, South African Health Minister Joe Phaahla said at a press conference. “Health officials presented evidence that the strain may be milder, and that infections may already be peaking in the country’s most populous province, Gauteng.” South Africa announced the discovery of Omicron on Nov 25, 2021.

 

                                                                            Pfizer’s anti-Covid Paxlovid pills arriving at Ben Gurion Airport

Another positive item is that the first shipment of Pfizer’s Paxlovid, the C-19 fighting pill, has been delivered to Israel. Reportedly, the pill, that has been approved by the FDA in the United States. Paxlovid is said to be over 90% effective in preventing hospitalizations and deaths from Covid in high-risk patients . Israel will also receive Merck’s Molnupiravir pills, also granted FDA approval, in the coming weeks.

Israel has also begun testing a fourth vaccine since scientists have discovered that the efficacy of the third “booster” vaccine dwindles after 4-6 months. So far, health care workers, those at risk, and those 70+ will be eligible for the fourth vaccine. Media reports that the fourth vaccine may be available as soon as January.

However, this is the flu season, Israel is reminded by the Health Ministry. As of today, nearly 2,000 people have been hospitalized with the flu. And one woman was diagnosed with “Flurona” a combination of the flu and covid viruses. 

So, while the mountain is coming, there is hope that it is made of freeze dried coffee and will dissolve and disappear as quickly as it came.

Meanwhile, as 2020 comes to an end Israel’s population has climbed to nearly 10 million. According  to the Israel bureau of statistics, the total is 9.45 million. 73.9% are Jewish. 21.1% are Arab. Israel also received 25,000 are new immigrants. 30 % from Russia, 14.6% France, 13.9% USA, 12.4% Ukraine.

And as New Years approaches, Israelis are advised not to attend large events, to keep social distance and wear masks. Time will tell if the advice is heeded.

So, as one pundit pointed out, no matter where you are, don’t forget to heed what the health experts say, “Get vaccinated, keep your hands clean,  and wear your masks.”

Happy New Year to all. Stay safe and well

Watch The Numbers

 

It’s all about the numbers. Israel has shut its borders to non-Israelis until at least Dec 22, 2021 but that date is expected to be pushed back again. No date has yet been set to reopen those borders. Tourism has been hard hit. This is after all the Christmas season.

Tourism workers striking at Ben Gurion Airport

Israel’s Finance Minister Avigdor Leiberman didn’t make the tourism industry happy when he said on Sunday that workers in the tourism industry should find other employment. 

Jobless tourism workers took to the streets demanding compensation caused by the country’s moves. According to media reports, travel agents and tour guides are fuming as foreign tourists are still banned from entering. Nachman Shai, Israel’s Minister for Diaspora Affairs, said at a conference in Florida that he hoped the ban on non-Israelis entering Israel would end soon.

Not only have non-Israelis been barred from entering Israeli, Israelis have now been barred from traveling to nearly 50 countries. And those who return from one of the “Red” countries must submit to a 10-day stay in a government-run hotel, or if they show a negative test after 72-hours to home quarantine for the remaining week. Israel is also considering a regulation that prohibits entry to  public areas like malls, restaurants, or stores, including large venues like IKEA, without showing a “green pass” that certifies they’ve had all three vaccines.

Up until recently, Israel’s Covid-19 numbers had been dropping steadily. Then came Omicron. South Africa had first noticed the Omicron variant and health officials there said that the variant was not as dangerous to those inoculated with the vaccines but that the Omicron variant was considerably more contagious. This, while many in Israel felt the danger had passed.

Recently, a group of researchers at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem said Israel was entering a 5th wave of Covid infections. Some speculated that as many as 10,000 cases a day might again be seen in Israel. Israel’s PM Bennet reportedly took the Hebrew University researchers conclusions to heart and went all out on a vaccination campaign. “Vaccines are the only way to protect against the virus,” Bennet said. On Sunday, Dec 12th, PM Bennett said, “We want to delay [Omicron’s] entry into the country through the restrictions at Ben Gurion Airport, and, at the same time, take advantage of these precious days to increase everyone’s immunity. We are not protected enough at the moment.”

In order to protect citizens, Israel has passed regulations allowing children from 5-11 to receive the vaccines. Regulations were already in place for children 11-18. So, in effect, anyone over 5 could get vaccinated. However, not everyone took the Prime Minister’s advice. Out of the 9.5 million Israelis, 4,125,553 have received all three doses of the Pfizer vaccine, 5,790,662 have received two doses, and 6,408,357 only one dose. As if backing Bennet’s claim,  Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla stated recently that those vaccinated with all three Pfizer shots were protected from the Omicron variant. Two shots, according to Bourla, were not enough.  Israel has also been considering administering a 4th vaccine to fight the Omicron variant, fearing the effectiveness of the 3rd vaccine waned after several months, but the Health Ministry announced today the 4th vaccine had been postponed.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson

According to a Reuters report, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that the first patient in England with the Omicron variant has died. Johnson said that ”the Omicron variant now accounts for around 40% of infections in the capital… And that the infection rate from the virus doubles every 2-3 days.” 

Johnson spoke after UK scientists raised the COVID alert level to 4 on a 5-point scale. Johnson said in an interview, “Britain faces a ‘tidal wave’ of the Omicron variant of coronavirus and two vaccine doses will not be enough to contain it.” Johnson also said he’d accelerated the booster rollout program.

Before the death was announced, Britain said 10 people had been hospitalized with the Omicron variant in various parts of England. Their ages ranged from 18 to 85 years and most had received two vaccination doses. The UK Health Security Agency said Omicron - first detected in South Africa, Botswana and Hong Kong in late November - can overcome the immunity of those who have had two shots of vaccines such as AstraZeneca, or Pfizer-BioNTech.

Infection Statistics according to ncov2019.live/data

World: 270,458,346 infections, 5,322,991 deaths, and 23,439,638 active cases. In the USA, 50,801,455 cases, 817,956 deaths, 9,979,825 active cases. In Britain, 10,819,515 cases, 146,439 deaths, 985,934 active cases. Israel has experienced 1,350,215 cases, with 8,216 deaths, currently 94 in serious condition, most unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated, of them 21 on ventilators, and 5,608 active cases. Israel reported 444 new cases on Sunday. And so far Israel has 67 confirmed Omicron cases. The death of a 6-year-old boy in Netivot was reported today. He had recovered from Covid, but collapsed at home, where he died. His 3 siblings, who had also previously contracted Covid, were all taken to the hospital suffering from difficulty in breathing.

One observer, when asked when Israel’s borders will again be open to non-Israelis, said, ‘Watch the numbers. As long as they keep going up, the borders will remain closed. When they start dropping, the borders will open up again.”

Meanwhile, Israel is playing defense, trying to keep the Omicron variant out of the country, and trying to vaccinate as many people as possible. The problem is, not everyone wants to be vaccinated nor believes the vaccine is safe, no matter what doctors and health experts around the world have to say.