The Expendables

Sylvester Stallone and his band of misfits, all men with honed lethal skills, circulate the globe like a swarm of killer bees, righting wrongs and eliminating the bad guys. They are called the”Expendables” because that’s who they are. Men whose disappearance won’t create any waves anywhere. Who may be missed, but not terribly, considering they had always led a precarious existence.

In any war sacrifices are made. Battles are designed to keep the number of killed and wounded low, but that can’t always happen. When the troops landed on the beaches of Normandy, according to www.historyhit.com, “Using new studies, for the first time we can forensically analyses the chances of survival. As 2,000 paratroopers face 345,000 bullets, across an area of sky covering 9 squares miles, the chances of survival were 1 in 4. But 50% of the men survive.”

In todays war against Corona, it seems that it is the “elderly” who are the expendables. Tom Friedman, writing in the New York Times, quoted public health expert Dr. David Katz. “The data are now overwhelming, from here in the U.S. and all around the world, that this infection is a grave threat to the elderly and chronically ill, but generally mild for younger, generally healthy people.” Katz said, “We should guard those most vulnerable until we can sound the all-clear. Only this kind of thoughtful, risk-stratified approach can allow for herd immunity with maximal safety and minimal total harm from infection and the consequences of prolonged lockdown alike.”

Yet, when faced with an economic recession and or depression the pressure is on all countries to ease restrictions and allow the economy to regain its strength. An article by David Horowitz appeared in the Times of Israel today. “Under-50s have little to fear, but even vaccine won’t save millions of elderly.’ He quotes leading epidemiologist Prof. Yehuda Carmeli who says the newest data leaves him more optimistic, but not when it comes to the over-70s; Carmeli predicts some 8,000 Israeli deaths,” caused by the virus over the next few years.

According to Carmeli: “We know now is that in people below the age of 50, the risk of death is two among every 1,000 people diagnosed as having the disease. But what we’ve also learned is that...The real mortality figure for those aged 50 and under (who are exposed to the virus] is two per 10,000-50,000. If we go to the population older than 70, the chance of dying is much higher. It’s eight percent for those over 70 [diagnosed as having the disease]. And 15 percent among those who are over 80. ... that will be about 4,000 or 5,000 Israelis dying in the 70+ age group”

Carmeli, the head of Israel’s National Institute for Antibiotic Resistance and Infection Control also heads the Department of Epidemiology at the Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center and is a professor at the Sackler School of Medicine at Tel Aviv University. Carmeli believes, “We are just at the beginning. By the end of this event, we assume that about 80 or more percent of the world population will get infected, unless there is a vaccine.” He adds, “serological tests increasingly shows that the mortality rate for those exposed to the virus is far, far lower than initial data had indicated. The ‘many millions’ he now believes will ultimately die before most of the world’s population becomes immune would have been a far, far higher total otherwise.”

Carmeli says that “the likelihood of someone who’s younger than 50 (dying from the virus) is extremely small. Carmeli holds out little hope for a vaccine that will help the elderly. “...vaccines are usually much less efficacious in the older population and in immunocompromised patients – and those are the people who actually most need the protection.”

Dire predictions. Carmeli says wearing a mask is essential. Wiping off your credit card is silly, “unless someone sneezed on it.” He expects millions to die and the best that can be done is to slow the infection rate so that the health systems are not overrun creating even more deaths because not everyone can be treated, or those with other types of diseases.

So, how does that equate to expendables? Economy versus sacrifice. A recession/depression will, according to experts, kill many more people than the virus, create more social unrest, and violence, domestic and otherwise. If opening the economy is the solution to saving the lives of the masses, and in the event sacrificing the elderly who would be exposed and vulnerable, the decision to open the economy wins. If, as Carmeli believes, the young are more or less safe even if they get the virus, then the soldiers sacrificed on the battlefront with this virus will be the elderly. Actuarial tables, according to pundits, would support this tactic.Who is more likely to contribute to society, a 30-year-old or an 80-year-old? Insurance companies, and judges assessing damages, would go with the 30-year-old.

Wear a mask, keep social distancing, be scrupulous with hygiene, and hope for the best. An Israeli company received FDA approval for an early detection system that can predict a patient’s deterioration once struck with the virus. Netanya based CLEW’s CEO Gal Solomon said his company can estimate when a patient will get critically ill based on AI (artificial intelligence). In Britain, at Oxford University, the discovery was made that a simple steroid used for years can cut mortality in severe cases by up to a third.

While Health Ministry official Prof. Sadetski has said Israel is in a second wave of infections, after 300 cases were discovered in the last 24-hours as apposed to just 20 a day a month ago, Yesh Atid MK Levi said this was fear-mongering. He stressed observing Health Ministry regulations would keep people safe. And anyway, most who would be infected were young and not at terrible risk.

The economy has to open up. Israel Katz, Israel’s new Finance Minister, formally Minister of Transport, wants to restart the trains. TV news is filled with reports of bumper-to-bumper traffic on Israel’s highways caused by the lack of public transport. People are having trouble getting to work. Efficiency is down. Katz also wants to reopen cultural events. Restaurants are already reopened. Gatherings can be held with up to 250 people. Anyone walking around in Tel Aviv would be surprised how few people wear masks. And Tel Aviv has recently seen a spike in infections.

In Israel, as of now, 303 have succumbed to the virus, most elderly. Nearly 20,000 people have been infected, with 27 on ventilators. But these numbers are mild compared to other countries, and even states in the USA like Tennessee that has twice the number of infections and 25 percent more deaths but just a third of Israel’s population. The Israeli government is meeting to decide whether or not to lockdown “hotspots” where the virus seems to have gathered strength. No decision has yet been reached.

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s push to annex the West Bank has met with considerable resistance. It is still unclear if he will carry out his plan to announce annexation on July 1^st. Most experts expect he will scale back his ambition. The US has said that Blue and White chief Gantz must agree to any annexation proposal or the US won’t back the plan. Suddenly, Gantz is a key to a major government decision. Analysts across the board warn of the annexation’s ramifications. Jordan, an important strategic ally, has threatened to cut off diplomatic ties, and the Israeli army is preparing for the possibility of a multi-front war.

Both Trump and Netanyahu are in their 70’s and thus in the at risk population the virus threatens.

However, pundits speculate neither of these men would be considered “expendable,” by their base.How those opposed to them would feel is a completely different matter.

Living Through History

Corona’s back, a little

Israel has seen an uptick in COVID-19 cases. According to Ynet news, over 800 cases have been reported in the last week compared to only 300 cases in the two preceding weeks. However, most of the cases have been among school children and teachers. According to the Ministry of Health, 36 percent of those from 0 - 18 who tested positive were asymptomatic. These children attend school and unknowingly pass on the infection.

Schools reopened approximately two weeks ago, the normal incubation period of the virus is between 36- hours to two weeks, and experts say that we are now seeing the expected results of opening the schools. Israel also eased most restrictions on movement and gatherings, allowing the reopening of synagogues and permitting weddings up to 250 people, while stressing the necessity of masks, washing the hands, and social distancing. However, the beaches in Tel Aviv and the parks around the country filled up. Restaurants opened. Some hotels opened. Fewer and fewer people were seen observing the health regulations. “Tel Aviv?” said one person interviewed. “It’s as if there is no corona and never was. Life looks back to normal. No masks. No social distancing.”

The health ministry expected the results of the end of this lockdown to lead to an increase in infections.

But Israel’s economy was suffering from the lockdown. Nearly a million people were unemployed and collecting compensation. School closure meant parents had to stay home. Some critics asked what was worse, allowing the virus to run rampant and swallow the results, or watch the economy implode.

On an international level, the COVID-19 has had devastating effects with economists speculating about an outcome. The NYTimes said, for the USA, the virus caused a “rip in the fabric of the economy that won’t be mended easily.” According to that report, the USA entered a recession in February after 128 months of expansion. Israel’s economy fares no better.

Israel’s current policy to contain the virus has been to shut down isolated pockets of the virus, specific schools and to quarantine the students and staff. As of now over 130 schools have been shuttered and nearly 18,000 teachers and students put into quarantine. These numbers pale in comparison to other countries like the USA, Brazil and the UK. Or to the total shutdown 3-month Israel experienced.

As of now, in Israel, 18,049 cases have been reported with 298 deaths, and 23 patients on ventilators.

The number of cases has risen but the death rate has tapered off and the numbers on ventilators has steadily dropped from a high of well over a hundred. Health Minister Yuli Edelstein warned that without social distancing, hygiene and masks Israel could face another wave with 5,000 people on ventilators. Statistically, once on a ventilator, the fatality rate is over 80 percent.

The ministry of health says that many of the children were infected on public transport and then spread the virus to classmates and teachers. Ran Saar, head of the Maccabi HMO in Israel, told Galei Tzahal radio that most of the infected are not sick and are in the age group that won’t get sick, or at least not dangerously ill. He pointed out that the elderly are still at high risk. “But, I don’t see a new wave of COVID-19,” he said.

Meanwhile, Prof. Amit Shira of Bar Ilan University released a new study that showed that the elderly are not only at risk of the virus but of life-threatening depression. According to the study 14% of the elderly were experiencing extreme depression due to the extended shutdown. He said the elderly were suffering from lack of social contact in all its forms due to the lockdown. Prof. Shira said alternatives were needed to involve the elderly in society and few were available. Most of them were intimidated by Zoom and Skype and other social media.

Prof. Shira did not mention, at least on the radio, the Israeli start-up unipercare.com that was used to allow patients in isolation at Tel Hashomer hospital to communicate with their families. (Transparency: we have family working with Unipercare. That’s how we know about it at all.). Unipercare has also been used successful among the elderly in Israel and now in the USA among Holocaust Survivors and others in the Jewish community, and beyond.

Black Lives Matter. Israelis also participated in protests in sympathy with the George Floyd demonstrations held across America, and the world. Several thousand people gathered in Tel Aviv to protest discrimination. In Israel, the police have been criticized for using deadly force unnecessarily. Last week an autistic Israeli Arab was shot and killed when police thought he was brandishing a knife. A few weeks before, a mentally ill man was shot under similar circumstances. Police are being encouraged not to shoot to kill if possible.

However, in Israel, deadly attacks on police are not uncommon. Experts say that nervous police and army troops open fire when they feel their lives are in danger, which they often are. Observers point out that hardly a week goes by that an army check-post isn’t attacked by a man, or woman, with a knife, or a policeman attacked, or a car used as a weapon to ram a police barricade. In contrast, one observer pointed out the Clint Eastwood film, “Unforgiven.” Eastwood as William Munny explains how he is so deadly in a gunfight in a crowded saloon with a dozen people shooting at him. Munny explained that most of the people were nervous, frightened, firing wild, while he took his time and calmly dealt with the situation. He also explained, “I was drunk most of the time.” Not a prescription for Israel’s police and army. But something to consider.

The Black Lives Matter protests in Israel are not likely to become as prevalent and persistent as those now taking place in the USA, said one observer. The NYTimes wrote that “Other protests flare and fade. This movement (Black Lives Matter) seems different. Already the massive gatherings for racial justice across the country and now the world have achieved a scale and level of momentum not seen in decades.”

On the Israeli political front, a recent poll shows that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud party would garner 40 Knesset seats if elections were held today, while his once rival now coalition partner Blue and White chairman Benny Gantz’s party would only get 12 seats. With those numbers, said the commentators, Netanyahu no longer needs Gantz to form a government. There is speculation that Netanyahu may do something to dissolve the coalition and call new elections. This while he is standing trial for three felonies. “You can’t make this stuff up,” said one observer.

Netanyahu may also be implicated in the ‘Submarine’ scandal. Case 4,000 involving kickbacks and bribes to the German Thyssenkrupp company over a $2 billion order. But Netanyahu is still intent on annexing up to 19 settlements in the West Bank on July 1, 2020, even though the USA has asked him to go slowly, and the EU and UN have advised against the annexation. The Palestinian Authority has cut off ties with Israel over the prospective move and Jordan has warned of a break in diplomatic relations.

To those living through this historic period, plagues, social unrest, political turmoil, an observer said,

“This reminds me of Einstein’s explanation of the theory of relativity. Sitting on a hot fire, a minute takes forever. Sitting next to Marilyn Monroe the minutes passes like a snap of the fingers.” Another added, “Living through history isn’t the same as reading about it in a book.”

Let's Boogaloo

Let’s Boogaloo

Before we get to Israel, consider this:

Hawaiian shirts are in among those who want to incite riots during the peaceful protests taking place

in American cities. Problem is those wearing those shirts, usually under military-style combat vests, are, according to a recent Associated Press report, part of the Boogaloo movement bent on overthrowing the US government and creating a civil war, if not a race war.

Three white men with military backgrounds who are loosely affiliated with right-wing groups were arrested recently in Las Vegas while preparing molotov cocktails to be hurled at police and buildings during protests. Another white man from Galesburg, Illinois was arrested in Minneapolis with molotov cocktails in the trunk of his car.

Yet another man was arrested in the Chicago suburb of Lombard Illinois walking toward squad cars with a lighter in his left hand and a Molotov cocktail in his right hand.. He was accused of encouraging protestors to hurl the firebombs during the protests. According to the Associated Press the three Las Vegas men were part of the “Boogaloo” movement, a code word, along with the Hawaiian shirts, used to convey sympathy with participating in a civil war by right-wing anti-government para-military groups. Part of their brief, according to analysts, is to create a race war.

President Trump apparently played into these themes as well, according to Gail Helt, a former CIA analyst who watched for signs of democratic decay in Asian countries during her 12 years as an analyst. She was commenting on President Trump using the police to clear Lafayette park by gassing protestors. “It was everything an autocrat is,” said Helt in an article published in the Huffington Post. “Trying to show off the reins of power. That image of him holding the Bible...I don’t know what that was, but it was disturbing.” The lead sentence in the Huffpost article asked, “If Donald Trump is willing to have Americans gassed and beaten so he could stage a photo opportunity, what will he be willing to do to retain the presidency come election time?” Another website showed the Trump photo of him holding the bible standing in front of the Washington D.C. church with that of Adolph Hitler in a similar pose with a Bible but in Germany before World War II.

President Trumps threat to send in the military to quell the protests was met with a wide range of citicism from military leaders. In an Atlantic article, former Sec. of Defense Gen. Jim Mathias said that the president was trying to divide not unite the nation and quoted the Nazi dictum of ‘divide and conquer.’ Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley issued a message to the armed forces reminding them of their oath to uphold the constitution which gave Americans the right to “Freedom of speech and peaceful assembly.” One critic, writing in Haaretz, said that Trump was absent in fighting the COVID-19 but quick to send in troops to quell a protest over race.

What, ask some pundits, is behind Trumps behavior? Who, if anyone, is encouraging the protestors? Are either Russia or China or Iran using these protests for their own benefit? Trump, say these pundits, is no stranger to Russian interference. Is this some sort of long game Trump and Putin are playing, aimed at the coming elections? Clearly, the image of Trump holding the Bible will surface during the campaign, say the pundits. But paranoia can easily grab hold of the imagination where today fear of a microbe has shuttered entire cities.

In Israel, PM Netanyahu is playing a similar game to that of President Trump. Divide and Conquer, according to analyst. One said, “They are twins,” referring to Netanyahu and Trump. Using the COVID-19 as a smokescreen, Netanyahu, according to analysts, is seeking to disrupt the democratic principles Israel is founded upon. He has launched an attack on the police who are investigating him and on the Attorney General who is prosecuting him and on the court system that is trying him. He has tried to extend the emergency powers available to the PM because of the COVID-19 pandemic even to allowing police to burst into private homes without a warrant should they suspect someone with the virus is lurking there.

But, most of all, as part of his diversion, says an analyst, he is launching a bid to annex the settlements in the West Bank on July 1, 2020. The EU, the UN, and the Palestinian Authority have harshly criticized this intention. The PA has stopped security cooperation with Israel and even stopped passing on taxes collected on Israel goods back to the Israeli government. Israel’s neighbor Jordan, who is involved in a peace treaty with Israel, has warned of harsh consequences should the annexation plans go into effect.

Netanyahu claims the annexation is part of the Trump peace plan. However, some settlers who have seen the plans now balk at implementation. “Trump is no friend of Israel,” said Jordan Valley settler leader David Elhayani. He claims the present map would annex 15 isolated Israeli settlements that would be surrounded by Palestinian land earmarked for a Palestinian state. Netanyahu bashed Elhayani in the media and said Trump is indeed a friend of Israel.

Some pundits believe that Netanyahu’s aim is to start a war with the Palestinians over the annexation and thus distract the public from his trial on three felonies. High court judge Menachem Maoz recently wrote an explanation why the court allowed Netanyahu to serve as Prime Minister. A loophole in the basic law, Israel’s version of the constitution, allows a Prime Minister to serve while under indictment even though holding the job of a minister or even a lowly bureaucrat employed by the government is forbidden. Moaz thought Netanyahu’s running for office ‘a moral failure,” but not illegal. Former PM Ehud Olmert resigned his office when indicted for bribery. Netanyahu has so far held fast to his office.

Many observers worry that Netanyahu, like Trump, will try to push the limits of democracy as he exerts more and more authoritarian rules. Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, now Minister of Defense, has said he will oppose any annexation not approved by the US government. Gantz is considered a disappointment by many for stealing their votes and joining Netanyahu’s government. Gantz had pledged during the three campaigns for PM held within the last two years, that ended in a stalemate each time, that he would never sit in a government with Netanyahu.

A few optimists hold out the hope that Gantz, too, has a long game plan, and entered the “COVID-19 Emergency Government” in order to keep Netanyahu in line and not allow the PM to use his office to help stay out of jail. As Minister of Defense Gantz could, possibly, prevent Netanyahu from fomenting a conflict with the PA, or Hezbollah in the North, or Hamas in the South, as a way to stay in power. Or maybe not. Gantz has so far shown little backbone, according to some. According to others, he is an idealist who didn’t want to drag Israel into yet another election. Time will tell if Gantz is a master stratagist or simply an ambitious politican.

The Knesset was closed, again, on Thursday as Joint List MK Sami Abu Shehadeh was diagnosed with Corona. COVID-19 cases have risen over the last few days, for over 100 a day. A few weeks ago they’d dropped to 50 a day. 65 schools and preschools have been closed and nearly 8,000 students and teachers have been put into quarantine. Health officials think that public transportation was to blame for the schools spike in virus infections.

On Tuesday, hundreds of Hapoel Tel Aviv soccer fans gathered at Tel Aviv’s Bloomfield stadium to celebrate Tel Aviv’s 3-0 victory over Hapoel Jerusalem. The crowd was closely packed together ignoring social distancing. “We can be together at the beach,” said one fan, “why not here?”

Another incident made the news, too. Channel 12 TV showed footage of a party sponsored by a modeling agency on the roof of Tel Aviv’s Carlton Hotel. Neither social distancing nor the wearing of masks were observed while beautiful models, male and female, danced to the music. The hotel’s manager was later fined by the Health Ministry for allowing the party.

In contrast, TV reports showed that hard-hit Benei Brak residents were carefully abiding by the mask

and social distancing regulation. Jerusalem, also a hotspot of the virus, was also seen as regulation abiding. However, while synagogues have reopened, if the congregants observe masks and social distancing, Interior Minister Aryeh Deri reversed a decision to allow foreign yeshiva students into Israel. Israel’s borders are still closed to non-citizens unless the visitor has special permission.

The airports were scheduled to reopen in Israel in July but no firm date has been set.

Meanwhile, the Boogaloos are still out there and the settlers itching for annexation are still out there and the COVID-19 is still here, there, and everywhere. So far Israel has nearly 18,000 cases and nearly 300 deaths, not much compared to other places but enough. ‘Shomer or Soger,’ (guard or quarantine) warned Health Minister Yuli Edelstein in a new slogan. With hundreds of new cases over the last few days, and Israelis tired of being confined and now ignoring the regulations, experts believe it is only a matter of when, not if, a new outbreak occurs.

Others ask if the Twins, Trump and Netanyahu, are in lock-step over annexation and using the virus as a smokescreen for further authoritarian moves. With the Boogaloos waiting for the right time to rise up in the USA, and Netanyahu using his Likud functionaries to spread unfounded allegations against

the Justice system and the police, to keep Netanyahu out of jail, pundits wonder what the future holds.

But, like everyone else, they have no answer.