Friday, July 24, 2020

Shaking in the Wind

    

Protest outside PM Netanyahu’s Jerusalem residence

This week saw nearly nightly protests outside PM Netanyahu’s Jerusalem residence. Each time thousands of demonstrators filled the streets calling for the PM to resign. Netanyahu and his followers waved off the demonstrators as ‘left-wing radicals.’ However, the demonstrators were reportedly from across the political spectrum. Netanyahu, on trial for three felonies, appeared unmoved by the protests but analysts say that was just posturing.

Miki Zohar, chairman of the Likud party’s Knesset faction, and Netanyahu’s unofficial spokesperson, has called for the police to ban demonstrations outside the PM’s residence. Zohar has replaced David Biton as Netanyahu’s voice to the media when complaining about things like the protests that would be untoward for a Prime Minister. Zohar replaced Biton after the latter was indicted for corruption and forced to resign his Knesset seat. (A Prime Minister under indictment has no such obligation.)

According to Ynetnews, Amir Ohana, Public Security Minister and a die-hard Netanyahu supporter, accused the police of being “too soft” on demonstrators. This, even though the police used water canons and mounted police in an attempt to disperse the crowds. Ohana’s ministry oversees the police but only in so far as setting policy. According to a channel 13 tv report, the ministry does not have any legal authority over decisions related to the police.

The demonstrators had a permit that expired at 11:00 PM but frequently overstayed the time limit. That’s when the police moved in with force to drive the demonstrators away from the PM’s residence. Over 50 people were detained on Thursday night.

The COVID-19 pandemic was ostensibly the main complaint of the protesters, many young and now unemployed, according to reports. Nearly one million Israelis are now unemployed, 21% of the population. The other complaint was the government’s apparent inability to effectively combat the virus. The number of Israelis infected tipped over 2,000 a day twice this week, with nearly 58,000 people infected and nearly 450 deaths. 300 people are in critical condition and nearly 35,000 have an active virus.

Likud stalwarts have dropped strong hints that Netanyahu will seek new elections, to be held in November. However, Netanyahu’s standing in the polls has slipped precipitously. Two weeks ago polls showed Netanyahu’s Likud party with 40 Knesset seats. That number has slipped back down to 32 seats. While he could cobble together another coalition with 63 seats, according to analysts, so could the opposition.

Amnon Abramovitch, political commentator on Channel 12 news, speculated that Neftali Bennet of the Yamina party, with 15 seats, and Yair Lapid of Yesh Atid, also with 15 seats, might join forces since Lapid wants to move further right and Bennet further left. Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party has slipped down to only 9 seats. And Telem, Moshe ‘Bougie’ Ayalon’s party has 8 seats. while Avigdor Leiberman of the Israel Beitanu party, with 8 seats will still be the kingmaker.

However, 55 seats is still not enough to beat Netanyahu’s 63 seats, as of this weeks polls. Abramovitch speculates that with the Corona Virus still rampant, Netanyahu could slip further in the polls and make the elections more of a slugfest than a walk in the park.

 

    (Screen capture not a video) Amnon Abramovitch, Channel 12 political commentator

Netanyahu’s approval rating has dropped from 74% at the start of the pandemic in March to just 38% in July. 58% disapprove of how Netanyahu handled the crises. A month ago the numbers were just about equal. Channel 12 news called this “The heart of the problem facing Netanyahu.”

Analyst say the public is confused over the regulations. Restaurants were to close, then that closure was postponed. Swimming pools were closed, then reopened. Gyms open on Sunday, again. Critics say that the government has not found a firm line and acted on it but changes with the bloated cabinet and various egos at play.

Some experts say that a complete closure is the only way to stop the virus from spreading. According to Ynetnews, Dr. Yaneer Bar-Yam, a specialist in the quantitative analysis of pandemics and head of New England Complex Systems Institute, says lockdown is sole answer to rapid spread of COVID-19, and was effective in more than 50 countries

To counter the public’s lack of confidence in the way the government is handling the pandemic, Netanyahu announced that at long last a “Corona Projector” (Administrator) has been appointed, one who does not adhere to the idea of a complete lockdown, according to reports.

Prof. Ronni Gimzo, head of Tel Aviv’s Ichilov Hospital, has agreed to take the job that three other candidates have turned down ostensibly because they were given a job with a tremendous amount of responsibility but not a commensurate amount of authority. Observers say this is an old formula developed in big business to derail a bureaucratic rival.

In a press conference on Thursday, Netanyahu said that Gimzo would receive all the backing he needed to take control of the forces fighting the virus. However, Gimzo will answer not to Netanyahu but to Health Minister Yuli Edelstein and his director-general Prof. Chezi Levi, and assistant director-general Prof. Itamar Grotto. Some pundits cite the British TV show “Yes, Minister” and believe that Grotto is the bureaucrat pulling the strings at the health ministry and was the one unwilling to give up control and allow others outside the health ministry to manage the pandemic crisis.

 

Channel 12 Chart showing Netanyahu’s popularity

Abramovitch thought Netanyahu might want to go to new elections as a way to postpone any action that would remove him from power before the rotation agreement with alternate PM Gantz comes into effect. New elections would also remove Gantz from his position as alternate prime minister, leaving Netanyahu as interim prime minister until a new PM was sworn in.

Netanyahu said yesterday that he does not want new elections. An opinion poll said that 74% of Israelis agreed with him and also didn’t want elections. However, another reason Netanyahu might force new elections is he fears US President Trump may lose the election in November. Although former GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney believes Trump will win the election. Romney lost to Barak Obama. According to the Huffington Post, Romney misjudged Obama’s popularity.

Some observers say that Netanyahu and US president Trump have the same DNA except that Netanyahu is smarter. Both want to be in complete control. Both believe in their own infallibility.

Both are now finding their towers shaking in the wind.