The fourth wave of the Coronavirus, the Delta variant, is crashing over Israel. The dire results are only tempered by the vaccinations. According to Israel’s Ministry of Health, those over 60 who are unvaccinated are 8 times more likely to develop a serious illness than those vaccinated. Those under 50 who are unvaccinated are 3 times more likely to become seriously ill.
So far nearly 60 percent of the Israeli population has been vaccinated. However, while the vaccines may prevent serious illness, the numbers of those infected continues to rise at an alarming rate reaching 8,646 within 24-hours between Aug 16-17, at a rate of 6.1 percent of all those tested.
Number of infections from Feb-Aug
To try to stem the rising tide of the virus Israel has begun inoculating the over 60 population and those with immunocompromised conditions with the 3rd “booster” shot. So far nearly one-million Israelis have received the third “booster” shot. Those over the age of 60 account for nearly 90 percent of those seriously ill.
Research has shown that the Pfizer vaccination, that used in Israel, is less effective than the Moderna vaccine against the delta variant. Pfizer’s resistance to the variant falls to 47% after six months whereas the Moderna vaccine is 87% effective during the same time period. However, both vaccines are effective in preventing serious illness.
In a conference call discussing the company’s quarterly earnings, Moderna president Stephen Hoge raised what he called a “scary” scenario should the coronavirus mutate and evolve. “If you think about how this might play forward, it seems logical to us that those three mutations present in the beta, gamma line and those two mutations present in the delta might find some way to combine in new and potentially scary ways. And if that came with the increased transmissibility, force of infection that delta can achieve, that might be a significant threat” But Hoge added, “Hopefully, it’s not as big of a threat as we’re seeing right now. But we need to be cautious and humble because SARS-CoV-2 keeps surprising us.”
So far worldwide there have been 208,713,040 confirmed cases of C-19, with 4,383,910 deaths, and 22,942,799 active cases. Number one on the list is still the USA, 37,736,986 cases have been confirmed with 638,798 deaths, and 6,870,866 active cases. The United Kingdom is #6 on the list of most infected with 6,295,613 cases, 130,979 deaths and 1,307,793 active cases. South Africa, 17th on the list has 2,613,569 cases with 77,440 deaths and 153,320 active cases. Canada, at 25 on the list has 1,455,971 cases, with 26,704 deaths and 19,172 active cases. Australia, who had been one of the least infected countries up until now, is about 104 on the list, with 40,080 cases, 967 deaths and 8,102 active cases.
Israel, 35th on the list, has 948,058 cases with 926 people hospitalized, 559 in serious condition, 89 on ventilators. and 6,694 deaths, up 13 in 24-hours.
Deaths in Israel from Covid-19
The cause for alarm in Israel is the sharp rise in the number of serious cases that has more than doubled in less than two weeks.
Health officials warn that should the numbers reach 700-800 a lockdown of the population, that may take place over the upcoming Jewish high-holidays, would become a viable option to contain the spread of the virus. However, most politicians, from Israel’s Finance Minister Avigdor Leiberman to Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz are against another lockdown.
Serious Cases rise in August
Israel’s PM Naftali Bennet has called for every one of the over one-million Israelis who have not yet been vaccinated to take the shot. According to Bennet, this is the best way to fight the spread of the virus.He also stressed that the Israeli Arab community has so far not responded to calls for vaccinations in significant numbers. Those unvaccinated, stressed Bennet put not only themselves at risk but their families and communities. One dire prediction by a health official was that those unvaccinated in Israel could see 1,000 deaths a week if the virus is not contained.
Israel’s coronavirus cabinet also passed a series of measures to help in the battle. Israel has 1.6 million students between the ages of 3-12. According to Israel Radio’s Reshet Bet, beginning next Sunday, students in grades 1-7 will be given government sponsored serology tests before entering school to determine if they are carriers of the virus. If so, they will be sent home to be quarantined. Students over 12 will be obligated to provide negative test results before entering school. Families of students over 12 will be responsible for the costs of the tests. As of now, children 12+ are entitled to receive Pfizer C-19 vaccines. So far, 23% of students 12+ have been vaccinated.Also, classes in high infection areas will be conducted remotely unless at least 70% of the students are vaccinated.
Other measures are the limitation on gatherings. Outdoor events will be limited to 500, indoors to 400, masks required for any gathering over 100. Private events are limited to 100 outdoors and 50 indoors. Mass events, like sports, or public gatherings, are limited to 1,000 indoors and 5,000 outdoors. Masks are now required in all closed spaces except private residences, and all indoor public areas.
Health experts are hopeful these measures will quell the current rise in the virus, however the effect of the ‘booster’ vaccination and the serology tests and restrictions in schools and other areas is not expected to have immediate results. Hospitals are already on the brink of overcrowding. Some of the smaller hospitals have already begun to send their patients to less busy hospitals, or those with many more beds. Health officials expect to see 1,500 serious cases a day by September. Health Ministry director-general Nachum Ash has instructed the hospitals to cancel all elective surgeries. The government is also desperately seeking more doctors and health care workers. The government is considering using medical students and nursing students to help in the crises.
According to Ynetnews, Dr. Miki Dudkovitz, head of Hillel Yafe Hospital, said it was still not clear how many nurses were needed and pointed out that ‘“Young nurses have not finished their post-graduation hospital training and are not yet suited to staff the Covid wards.”
Gali Weiss, deputy director-general of Share Tzedek hospital in Jerusalem, saw the government suggestion in a positive light. “We don’t have a choice…We’re talking about over 100 seriously ill per hospital.” She thought that the training the nurses and doctors had received was sufficient to help in the wards. “We welcome any help we can get,” she said.
Professor Arnon Afek, deputy director of Sheba hospital, agreed with the government initiative and with Gali Weiss. He said the real need was for nurses. “We’re at a critical phase in fighting the virus. As long as the health system is strong it provides a backbone to the government and prevents a lockdown.” He admitted the inexperienced nurses would not be of the highest standard, yet, but “it is better than to be short-staffed as the numbers of seriously ill are rising.”
Poland. A furor has broken out over Poland’s new law denying Holocaust survivors restitution of their property seized during WWII. In response, Israel’s Foreign Minister, and alternate Prime Minister, Yair Lapid has strongly protested to the Polish government over the move. Lapid, son of Holocaust survivors, has said the Polish law is a ‘disgrace.’ Poland has defended itself saying Poland wasn’t responsible for the loss of property but Germany, since it was the Nazis who gave the orders and who occupied Poland.
Fires. Israel’s hot dry summer has created an environment ripe for forest fires. A recent man-made brush fire, either arson or a careless camper, is still burning over communities in the outskirts of Jerusalem. So far, the fire has destroyed homes and crops and displaced residents. Over the last 45-hours, fire-fighters as well as 14 fire-fighting aircraft including a Super Hercules C-130 have been dropping water and fire retardant in efforts to stop the fires. No injuries among residents have been reported although one fire-fighter was taken to hospital.
Afghanistan. Some analysts in Israel are concerned that the recent Taliban take over of Afghanistan following the messy US withdrawal of 2,500 military forces, may encourage Islamic fundamentalist Palestinians in towns like Ramallah to mount a military campaign against Israel.
Others, like military analyst Yossi Melman writing in Haaretz, thought that the Taliban takeover might present an opportunity for Israel. While the Taliban takeover was “harming the United States’ standing in the world…” and US ally “Israel is certainly hurt by the image of a superpower in decline…what is happening in Afghanistan is not a zero-sum game,” wrote Melman, since the Sunni Taliban may become a thorn in the side of Israel’s enemy Shiite Iran. Iran and Afghanistan share a 950 km (590 mile) border.
According to Melman the Taliban and the Iranian Shiite regime have an “unbridgeable conflict between their religious ideologies and outlooks.” Since the moderate Arab Sunni counties like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait are fearful that the Taliban may strike an alliance with Sunni Al Queda, Melman postulates that “Israel could …become the backbone of military and strategic support for the Sunni world, which is fearful of Iran and of fundamentalist terror…”
