WAR IN UKRAINE
Francis Fukuyama, a famous American political scientist, political economist and author, who teaches at Stanford University in California, recently added to his American Purpose newsletter. Fukuyama, who was writing from Skopje, North Macedonia, where he was teaching a course on leadership development, posited that “Russia is heading for an outright defeat in the Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion…Putin will not survive the defeat of his army.” A Russian defeat will make possible a “new birth of freedom, and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy.”
Bohdan Khmelnytsky Monument, Kyiv
According to Wikipedia, “Fukuyama is best known as the author of ‘The End Of History and the Last Man’, in which he argued that the struggle between ideologies was largely at an end, with the world settling on liberal democracy after the end of the Cold War and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. The book was based on ideas from an earlier article, "The End of History?” In the article, Fukuyama predicted the coming global triumph of political and economic liberalism….”
Some, like author Raif Dahrendorf, dismissed Fukuyama’s ‘The End of History’ essay as Fukuyama’s 15 minutes of fame. Critics said Fukuyama’s ‘aggressive stance’ towards postmodernism was too extreme. Fukuyama argued that postmodernism undermined liberal democracy leaving the world weaker. He thought that the fact that liberal democracy had outlasted Marxism and fascism was proof of his thesis.
Pundits point to Fukuyama’s miscalculation about the end of history as an indication that his optimistic outlook on the possible demise of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is equally as flawed. But it’s a nice thought, said one pundit. “It provides a glimmer of hope for the grim situation in Ukraine.”
So far, over 2.5 million Ukrainians have become refugees, according to media reports. Nearly 1.5 million of those have wound up in Poland. The Russian military juggernaught is poised to overrun Ukraine, and countries like Latvia, Poland, even the Czech Republic are worried they may also be targets of Russia’s ambition to claim those countries as part of Russia.
Surprisingly, Israel has become a major player in the diplomatic efforts to reach some sort of cease-fire. Ukrainian Prime Minister Zelensky has reached out to Israel’s Prime Minister Neftali Bennett and asked him to mediate between Ukraine and Russia. Israel has good working relationships with both countries. Bennett recently flew to Moscow to meet with Russian president Putin, and has also been in Kyiv meeting with PM Zelensky.
As of now, Israel has absorbed approximately 8,000 Ukrainians, including nearly 3,200 Jews seeking citizenship under Israel’s ‘Right of Return’ for anyone with at least a Jewish grandparent. According to Israel radio’s Reshet Bet, Israel expects 100,000 new immigrants from Ukraine and Russia. Housing and medical facilities have to be prepared to deal with the expected immigration.
There has been a flap, however, caused by Israel’s Minister of the Interior Ayelet Shaked’s ruling that Israel would limit the number of refugees to 25,000. Israel’s liberal Meretz Party, joined by the Ukrainian Ambassador to Israel Yevgen Korniychuk, and others, took Minister Shaked’s ruling to Israel’s High Court to have the limit removed. The court’s decision is expected next week.
A temporary compromise was reached on Sunday allowing Ukrainians who have relatives in Israel to come in as tourists. PM Bennet said the refugees are welcome to stay until it is safe for them to return home. Israel has also opened up two hotels to house these refugees.
Some observers remind Israel’s critics that there are still Jewish people in Ukraine, including Prime Minister Zelensky. Historians point out that the Jewish people have been in Ukraine for nearly 1,000 years. But some of that time witnessed cruelty and death The memory of Ukraine’s alliance with Nazi Germany and an even longer history of deadly pogroms between 1918-1921where nearly 100,000 Jews were killed, and entire villages and towns wiped out, still lingers in the minds of many Israelis.
Meanwhile, Israel has sent over 100 tons of medical and cold weather equipment to Ukraine but has avoided repeated Ukrainian requests for military supplies. “We need planes, not blankets,” one Ukrainian minister said. Still, some young Israelis, veterans of the Israeli army with family ties to Ukraine, have gone to the Ukraine to help fight the Russians. Other Israelis have gone to provide aid and comfort, setting up stands of food and drink and piles of clothing near crossing points from Ukraine to Moldova and Poland. The Israeli media is filled with opinions that are either supportive of Israel’s attempt at neutrality or critical of that position.
Both Israel and the USA are walking a tightrope, according to pundits. These pundits point out that Israel has a special relationship with Russia because of Israel’s ongoing fight with Iran. Iranian backed militias, high ranking Iranian army officers, and powerful Iranian weapons like anti-aircraft batteries and missiles are all being deployed in Syria along the Israeli border. These same weapons are sent regularly to the Hezbollah terrorist group who run a large part of Lebanon.
Israeli jets run sorties against these Iranian targets and convoys that travel from Syria to Lebanon. Russian forces control the skies over Syria and have so far allowed Israel to strike at Iranian targets. Israeli defense officials want to keep this arrangement with Russia going since stopping Iranian attacks, or Iranian sponsored attacks on Israeli civilians, is understandably a high priority.
Israel has also vowed not to become a safe haven for Russia’s Jewish oligarchs who are trying to avoid US sanctions. According to the Times of Israel, Israel’s Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, meeting with officials in Slovakia, has said Israel will not be a “route to bypass” sanctions on Russia. Some of these Russian-Jewish oligarchs hold dual Russian/Israeli citizenship. Victoria Nuland, the US under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, said last week that Israel should bar Russian oligarchs and not become the “last haven for dirty money that’s fueling Putin’s wars.”
Israel’s President Isaac Herzog, (r), meeting Roman Abramovich (L)
The most obvious is Jewish billionaire businessman Roman Abramovich, whose wealth is estimated at $12.2 billion and who is reportedly a close confidant of Russia’s PM Putin.
Abramovich, a major donor to causes in Israel like Yad Vashem, also owns the English premier league’s Chelsea soccer club. Abramovich was sanctioned following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. His private Gulfsteam G650 jet was said to have recently arrived in Israel although Abramovich’s whereabouts are presently unknown. Abramovich became an Israeli citizen in 2018. He is presently trying to sell the Chelsea soccer club.
COVID
“It aint over till it’s over,” said one commentator referring the the Covid pandemic. Speaking on American TV on Sunday, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said that everyone should get the ‘fourth vaccine.’ Bourla said that the efficacy of the vaccines drops after four to six months and the fourth vaccine is important. Pfizer’s Bourla said his company is working on an annual vaccination that covers all the Covid variants.
In Israel, the Covid reproduction number has been steadily rising in recent weeks after a precipitous drop. The r number is now 0.87 up from 0.66 two weeks ago. Israel has reported 3,471 cases on Sunday, a fraction of the nearly 30,000 a day in mid-February. Approximately 882 people are hospitalized with about 350 in serious condition and nearly 160 on ventilators.
Even with this drop in cases, health officials think that the 5th wave is over, but still advise caution. As of March 1st, ‘Green Pass’ was canceled, tourists are now allowed in unvaccinated as long as they show a negative test before boarding and take a PCR test upon arrival in Israel, and remain in isolation until a negative test result is received. Indoor masks are still required although walking through Israeli malls one rarely sees a masked individual but does see masks strewn around the floor and on sidewalks and caught in bushes like fall leaves.
Health officials express concern over a possible spike in infections after the upcoming Jewish holidays of Purim and Passover since both celebrations take place amid crowds or extended family. Covid czar Salman Zarka said that the downward trend could reverse by next week, following the Purim holiday, and that cases in old age homes are rising as people are becoming less cautious.
According to Ynetnews, Health Ministry Director General Prof. Nachman Ash said it was still to soon to say that the pandemic is over. "The [Omicron] wave is behind us, but the confirmed cases are still not low. I really hope that this is the last wave. I don't know that there won't be another variant that will bring on another wave. We're preparing for such an option, but I hope it doesn't happen.” Ash said in any case another booster would probably be needed.
Much of the world has still not been vaccinated, according to World Health Organization head Tedros Adhanom. He cited a 46% rise in Western Pacific, where 3.9 million people have been infected. Adhanom also said there has been a dangerous drop in testing for Covid. He said that 23 countries have not even vaccinated 10% of their population, and that 73 countries have a population where only 40% are vaccinated.
China has seen a worrisome rise in infections. A lockdown was imposed in Shenzhen do to a rise in infections. Shanghai has restricted all but essential travel. In Hong Kong those non-Chinese who could flee did so. One Israeli working in Hong Kong reported that had any of his children tested positive they would have immediately been taken away by Chinese authorities to a state-run facility where parents were not allowed to visit. Rather than run the risk, this Israeli returned to Israel with his wife and children leaving the family possession behind.
World wide there have been 458,585,671 cases reported, with 6,066,254 deaths, and 67,554,136 active cases. The USA still leads the world with 81,174,67 cases, 993,811 deaths, and 24,109,673 active cases. Israel has seen 3,719,444 cases, with 10,379 deaths, and 41,619 active cases.
Also, Israel health officials reported one case of polio in Israel and two other suspected cases. Polio has disappeared from Israel since a serious outbreak in the 50’s.
SCIENCE
According to an article published in the peer-reviewed scientific journal Aging Cell, Israeli scientists have reversed the aging process of female egg cells. The research, led by molecular biologist Dr. Michael Klutstein of the Hebrew University in Jerusalem managed to successfully identify one of the aging mechanisms that prevent egg cells from successfully maturing. We found that this aging mechanism is reversible and we can treat it,” Klutstein said. His team said this would help women suffering from age-related infertility.
