Monday, March 23, 2020

Let's clear the air.

The situation is dire. But maybe not.
According to Johns Hopkins Corona Virus database, compiled by assembling information from databases like the WHO, CDC, ECDCNHCDXY, 1point3acres, Worldometers.infoBNO, state, and national government health departments, and local media reports, as of  March 23, 2020, at 13:09 pm, the current statistics are these:
349,211  infected worldwide
15, 308 seriously ill
100,165 recovered.

In Israel, the numbers are rising by the hour. So far, 1,278 infected, 23 in serious condition and one octogenarian Holocaust Survivor dead.

Yet, according to some scientists, this pandemic will not destroy the world. A Times of Israel story on March 13th ran the headline:

Nobel laureate and Stanford professor Michael Levitt unexpectedly became a reassuring figure in China at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic. Now he assures Israelis: statistics show the virus is on a downturn.

Levitt predicted the China downturn and said he doubted that more than 10 people would die in Israel. Another epidemiologist, Hagai Levine at Hebrew University, said that the virus can be contained but the health authorities have to act and act fast. According to Shay Arkin, professor of Structural Biochemistry at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, "You're not going to see a million people die from this virus." He said that the new coronavirus is ’80 percent identical’ to the 2002-3 SARS that petered out within a few months. On the whole, according to Arkin, the virus causes a mild respiratory tract infection. But the elderly are the exception.

Israel has put the country under voluntary quarantine. The idea of the quarantine is to allow the virus to blossom in those people who are infected, and then hospitalize them. By keeping a "safe distance" those infected are less likely to infect others, especially the elderly. The current government is discussing a full quarantine of men over 70 and women over 65 since these are the groups most vulnerable.

Israel has set up temporary testing stations in parking lots in a few locations around the country. 5,000 tests were carried out within the last 24-hours. The increased testing accounts for the higher number of infections discovered. Ten days ago only 300 people were infected. Today the number is 1,238.

But there are shortages of masks and other equipment. This is a direct effect of previous governments paying scant attention to the needs of the Health Ministry, building new hospitals, putting in new equipment, at the expense of what in the USA would be called "pork-barrel" legislation. Money diverted from health to roads in the west bank and new settlements. Money diverted to pay for yeshiva students who do no army service and, if married, receive child support payment and pay no taxes.

As the epidemic rages, the political battle for control of Israeli politics goes on.  Something that directly affects Israel's ability to go to war with the Codvid-19 virus. Although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party gained a narrow majority in the third election, 36 seats to the 34 by the rival Blue and White party headed by Gen. Benny Ganz, Netanyahu could not form a coalition of 61 seats that would allow him to take over the government. Ganz, taking a historic, some pundits say desperate, step has sought and received support from the 15 seat United Arab party. The first time a candidate reached an agreement with the Israeli Arab sector. This gives Ganz a theoretical 61 seat coalition. With 61 members of Parliament supporting him, Ganz was charged by Israel's president Ruby Rivlin to form a government.  

However, PM Netanyahu, who has made nightly appearances as the leader of the war against the Cornonovirus in Israel, is not willing to step aside quietly. Netanyahu, who was to go on trial in two weeks for fraud, bribery, and breach of trust, managed to get his trial postponed until May because of the crises. Netanyahu has also skillfully maneuvered the Speaker of the Knesset, Yuli Edelstein, a Likud appointee, to keep the Knesset closed, thus denying the Knesset members from forming committees to deal with important matters, like electing a new speaker of the Knesset and setting up a special committee to deal with the epidemic. And approve a new budget.

Netanyahu claims he is a patriot out to save the country. Others in his party tell the media, in words that are nearly identical in each interview, that Netanyahu's rival, Ganz, is seeking to take control by strength and not through a democratic process, even though Netanyahu essentially lost the last election. To make matters worse, without a functioning government there is no budget. The one being used is temporary and frozen. A new budget can only be drawn up by the new government that must then be submitted to the Knesset for approval. Without the budget, the Health Ministry cannot order supplies and equipment to deal with the emergency. Lack of an approved new budget hogties any real progress across the board.

Netanyahu is willing to enter into a "national unity crises government" but only if he is the first to take over as Prime Minister in a rotation agreement where first Netanyahu and then Ganz would become Prime Minister. Ganz has rejected the idea twice before after each of the previous two elections that ended in a stalemate, saying he would not be in a government with an accused felon. Netanyahu has lashed out at Ganz as anti-democratic for not agreeing to allow the Likud, and Netanyahu, as the first PM.

Yair Lapid, number two in the Blue and White party, in an interview on Israel radio this morning, said, "Why doesn't Netanyahu decide to become second and Ganz first? Netanyahu could become the Minister for Fighting Corona, something he's good at." 

So far, no coalition has been formed. No national unity has been formed. Netanyahu has succeeded in pushing off his trial until May and now he is reportedly going to appeal to the court to drop the trial altogether because of the crises. Some pundits think that Netanyahu is using the crises to stay out of jail. Former PM and Defense Minister Ehud Barak said just that both on Israel TV Saturday night, and this morning on Israel radio. He accused Netanyahu of using this crisis for his own personal cold-hearted reasons. Mainly, said Barak, to stay out of jail.

Meanwhile, the numbers of those infected keep climbing. There is no government, hence no budget. And it is possible, as cynics speculate, that Netanyahu will stall any unity government talks until the country heads to the 4th election in a year. That election process would push Netanyahu's trial even further down the line. And, say his critics, he may be able to sneak in a bill suspending his trial indefinitely, or having the Minister of Justice, a Likud appointee, drop the charges altogether.